Ami Heesch

Oct 15, 2020

Ami L Heesch

 Corrected CIF premiums for corn and soybeans

 

Highlights

The grain markets were stronger on demand and world crop concerns from excessive dryness (sounds like a broken record almost). Equity markets falter on stalled stimulus aid package, while the US$ percolates on uncertainty about economic recovery in the Us and around the globe.

 

  • The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 3 cents at $41/01/barrel.
  • The US$ is up 435 AT 93.81, the gold market is up 5 bucks at 1908/ounce and the CD$ is down 0.00420 at 0.75660.
  • DJIA is down 19 at 28494, S&P down 5-6 at 3476 and NASDAQ down 61 at 11707.

 

Corn

Corn prices rose on dry weather concerns for SAS and rising corn prices in China. The December corn hit $4.04 ½, levels not seen since August of 2019. China’s corn prices rose as the investment community bets on higher values because of the recent typhoons that moved through the Chines corn area recently. Chinese officials expect little or no damage to the crop after being the victim of three typhoons.

 

  • Closes: December at $4.03 ¾, up 7 ¼ cents, March at $4.07 ¾, up 5 ¼ cents, July at $4.09 ¼, up 3 cents.
  • CIF premiums were 5 cents firmer for October and 4 cents firmer for November.
  • US farmers are rapidly harvesting, trying to beat the unfavorable weather forecast for this weekend and later next week.  Harvest is expected to be done by the end of October. Much of the crop is said to be getting binned verses being sold.
  • South Korea buys Brazil corn.
  • Spreads: Z/H 4 carry, H/K 1 ¼ carry, Z/Z 9 inverse.

 

Oilseeds

Soybean prices traded higher on continued demand for US beans, despite harvest activity and reports of beneficial moisture developing in Brazil.

 

  • Closes: November at $10.61 ¾, up 5 ½ cents, March at $10.44 ¾, up 2 ¼ cents, July at $10.40 ¾, down 1 ¼ cent. The products were mixed with meal up 8 bucks and oil down 72 points.
  • CIF premiums were 3 cents firmer for October and 2 cents firmer for November.
  • The canola market traded lower in sympathy with the US soyoil and Malaysian palm oil markets. Saskatchewan crops are 99% harvested.
  • USDA announced the sale of 261k tonnes of beans to China for 20/21.
  • NOPA soybean crush for September was reported at 161.5 mb (the largest crush number for September on record). Soyoil stocks tickled 1.433 billion pounds (near 11-month lows and above trade estimates of 1.412).
  • Spreads: X/F ½ cent inverse, F/H 16 ¼ inverse, X/X 88 cent inverse.

 

Wheat

The wheat market traded higher on world weather and crop concerns. The Chicago Dec 20 contract rose to levels not seen since December of 2014. KC soared higher on dry weather concerns for the HRW crop.

 

 

  • December closes: Mpls at $5.59 ¼, up 13 ¼ cents, KC at $5.59 ½, up 24 ¼ cents, Chicago at $6.19 ¼, up 22 ½ cents.
  • Paris milling wheat prices traded higher in sympathy with the US wheat market and ongoing dry weather concerns for the US, Argentina and Black Sea Region.
  • Argentina’s wheat crop is estimated at 17.0 mmt down from 18.0 previously.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 12 ½ carry, Kansas City Z/H 8 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H ¾ carry.