Michaela White

Oct 16, 2020

Ami L Heesch

 

 

Highlights

The grain markets seemed to have taken a break from recent highs. Profit taking was noted ahead of the weekend. Focus will be on weather maps for the Black Sea and South America going forward. The oil market traded lower on increased COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe which could slow demand. The US$ was weaker on fading prospects for a stimulus aid package to be released prior to the US Presidential election.

 

  • The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down $0.14 at $40.82 as of 1:40 PM.
  • The US$ down 0.182 at 93.674
  • DJIA at 28,642 up 256 points. 

Corn

The corn market traded both sides from rapid harvest activity and strength in wheat The Dec corn traded as high as $4.09 but failed to keep the momentum going.  Wintry type weather across the US Midwest this weekend is expected to delay harvest activity. 

  • Closes: December at $4.02 ½ down 1 ¼; March at $4.07 ¼ down ¾; May at $4.09 ¼ unchanged; July at $4.09 ¼ unchanged.
  • CIF premiums were mostly unchanged for Oct/Nov.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 655 tmt, near the low end of what the trade was looking for.
  • The USDA announced the sale of 128k tonnes of corn to Mexico for the current marketing year.
  • Spreads: Z/H 4 ¾ cent carry; Z/N 6 ½ cent carry; H/K 1 ½ cent carry. 

Oilseeds

The soybean market saw a bout of profit taking after rallying to 2-year highs. Prices drew pressure from shots of rain across Brazil and Argentina this week, with forecasts of more rain events possible for next week. Weekly export sales were decent. 

  • Closes: November at $10.50 ¾ down 11 ½; January at $10.51 down 11; March at $10.38 down 7 ½; July at $10.35 ¼ down 5 ¾.
  • CIF premiums were mostly unchanged for Oct/Nov.
  • Weekly export sales for beans were reported at 2.6 mmt, above what the trade was hoping for.
  • The USDA announced a couple of soybean sales to unknown this morning for the current marketing year (216k tonnes & 175k tonnes).
  • Spreads: X/F ½ cent carry; X/H 12 cent inverse; X/N 15 ½ cent inverse. 

Wheat

The wheat market traded both sides with support stemming from global crop worries. Gains were capped from disappointing weekly export sales and a bout of pre-weekend profit taking. Chicago Dec is up 31 cents for the week, KC up 24 cents for the week and Mpls up 20 cents for the week. 

  • December closes: Chicago at $6.26 ½ up 8 ¼; Minneapolis at $5.59 ¼ up ½; Kansas City at $5.59 up 1.
  • Weekly export sales were disappointing at 528 tmt. There were new crop sales of SRW to Brazil reported (60k tonnes).
  • Pakistan bought nearly 340k tonnes of optional origin wheat at $284/tonne C&F for Jan delivery.
  • Paris milling wheat prices traded higher on crop concerns for Russia, Ukraine, Argentina.
  • The French wheat crop is 12% planted. They are looking at planting additional ground to wheat despite recent bouts of adverse weather conditions.
  • The 2021 wheat acreage is estimated at 12.850 million acres with production totaling 616 million bushels.
  • 2021 winter wheat acres are estimated at 31.6 million up from 30.4 million in 2020 and 31.5 in 2019. The first assessment of winter wheat seedings is not until January of 2021.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H 3 ¼ cent inverse; Minneapolis Z/H 11 ¼ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 7 ¼ cent carry.