Ami Heesch

Oct 23, 2020

Ami L Heesch

Highlights

The grain markets were stronger on strong demand and optimism that it will continue. US Presidential election just around the corner. A stimulus aid package was hoped for by this week, but it did not happen. The oil world suffers from slowed demand because of CoronaVirus issues and increased output in other parts of the world. There are ideas that there will be little light at the end of the tunnel until late in the year of 2021.

  • Cattle on Feed report: On Feed Oct 1 at 104.0% (102.7-103.9), September Placements at 106.0% (98.9-106.5) and September Marketings at 106.0% (104.9-106.7).
  • The energy markets are weaker with crude oil down 84 cents at $39.80/barrel.
  • US$ down 195 at 92.76, gold up 1-2 bucks at 1902/ounce and CD$ steady at 0.76110.
  • DJIA down 74 at 28289, S&P up 1 at 3450, NASDAQ down 3 at 11503.
  • First Notice Day for November futures is October 30th with all long positions reported after the close on the 29th.
  • Daylight Savings Time ends November 2nd (brace for the dark, whether you are coming or going my friend).

     

    Corn

    The corn market trades higher on demand optimism and light country movement. China is thought to be in the market for several more tonnes of corn than the 7.0 mmt they have already bought. This week’s snow/rain events delay the balance of the corn harvest.   

  • Closes: December at $4.20, up 3 ¾ cents (contract high at $4.24), March at $4.20 ¼, up 2 cents, July at $4.20 ¾, up 1 ½ and red Dec down 2 ½ at $3.99 ½, after tickling $4.02 ½ earlier in the session.
  • CIF premiums were steady for Oct/Nov.
  • Harvest progress expected to be near 65-70% complete by Monday versus 57% last week.
  • The USDA announced the sale of 100k tonnes of corn to Unknown for the current marketing year.
  • Funds said to be long nearly 240k contracts of corn as of Tuesday, October 19th.
  • Spreads: Z/H rolling in….... closed at a ¾ cent carry, H/K 1 carry.

     

    Oilseeds

    Soybean prices were firmer on demand, spillover strength in the products and thought to have gotten a boost from options expiration today. First Notice Day for November futures is October 30th with all longs being reported after the close on the 29th.

  • Closes: November at $10.86 ¾, up 13 cents, March at $10.70 ½, up 11 ¾ cents, July at $10.61 ¼, up 5 ½ cents and red Nov at $9.83 ¼, up ¾ cent. The products were higher with meal up 4-5 bucks on tight supplies and decent demand, and oil up 46 points.
  • CIF premiums were firmer for Oct/Nov.
  • Harvest progress expected to be near 80-85% complete by Monday versus 75% last week.
  • The canola market traded higher, finishing the day up 3 bucks at $548.60/cwt.
  • As of Tuesday, October 19, the funds were said to be long nearly 189k contracts of beans, 68k contracts of meal and long 67k oil contracts.
  • Spreads: X/F 2 ¼ inverse, F/H 14 ½ inverse.

     

    Wheat

    Wheat prices traded higher on crop worries, plentiful global demand and ongoing dryness in the Black Sea Region, Argentina and the US Southern Plains. Taiwan and South Korea bought US wheat. Jordan re-tenders for wheat.

  • December closes: Mpls at $5.76, up 1 ½ cents, KC at $5.71, up 10 ¾ cents and Chicago at $6.34 ½, up 11 ¾ cents.
  • Egypt’s GASC bought 165k tonnes of Russian wheat for December shipment from $262-$279/tonne.
  • Paris milling wheat traded higher on renewed strength in the US wheat market and dryness in the US, Russia and Argentina.
  • Argentine crop estimates reduced to 16.8 mmt with ideas we could see reductions down to 15.1 mmt if hot/dry weather conditions persist.
  • US winter wheat planting progress expected to be near 87-90% complete by Monday versus 75% last week.
  • Through Oct 19 funds were said to be long 24k wheat contracts, 17k contracts in KC and long 8k contracts in Mpls.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H widened out to 9 ¾ carry versus 7 cents yesterday (Grrrrrr).