Ami Heesch

Jan 14, 2021

Highlights

Another big move to the upside on more fund buying. Ideas are that there will be additional cuts to US corn and soybean stocks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the yare not expecting to raise interest rates anytime soon.

 

  • There will be no Gain market trade on Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
  • The energy markets are stronger with crude oil up 78 cents at 53.65/barrel.
  • US$ turned lower, down 163 at 90.194, gold down 8 bucks at 1847/ounce, CD$ up 0.0039 at0.716.
  • DJIA down 30 at 30936, S&P down 10 at 3793, NASDAQ up 15 at 13143.
  • USDA Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks is scheduled for March 31st at 11 AM CDT.

                                                                                   

    Corn

    The corn market trades higher on tight stocks and decent demand. Ideas are that stocks continue to get smaller. The battle for acres seems to have begun.  

  • Closes: March at$5.34 ¼, up 9 ¾ cents, July at $5.34, up 10 cents, December at$4.57 ½, up 4 ¼ cents.
  • Gulf premiums were mostly unchanged for January.
  • Weekly export sales were off the charts at 1.5 mmt. Trade estimates were from 700 tmt-1.2 mmt.
  • The US EPA plans to make a proposal to extend the deadline for refiners to prove their compliance with current biofuel regulations. The 2019 deadline could get pushed out to the end of Nov 2021 and the 2020 deadline could get extended to the end of January 2022 or the beginning of June 2022.
  • Spreads: H/K 3 carry, K/N 3 inverse.

     

    Oilseeds

    The soybean market traded higher, but not as high as earlier in the week. Prices drew support from decent demand and expectations for a big soybean crush figure in Friday’s NOPA crush report for December.   

     

  • Closes: March at $14.30, up 23 ¾ cents, July at $14.12 ¼, up 23 ¾ cents, November at $11.97 ½, up 21 ½ cents. The products were firmer with meal up 7-8 bucks and oil up 88 points.
  • Gulf premiums were mostly unchanged for January.
  • Weekly export sales were reported at 1.2 which was the top end of the trade estimates.
  • Recent rain events were said to be beneficial to the crops of Argentina. More rain is forecast for the weekend.  Much more moisture is needed prior to the corn harvest which is expected to begin in April.
  • The canola market traded higher on strong demand and solid crush margins. Prices drew additional support from the rally in the US soy complex. The March contract closed up 3-4 bucks.
  • Spreads: H/K 3 inverse, K/N 14 ¾ inverse.

     

    Wheat

    The wheat market got some legs from the possibility that Russia may extend their export tax into the next marketing year. Prices drew additional strength from the rally in the corn and soybean markets. 

     

  • March closes: Mpls at $6.40 ½, up 11 ¾ cents, KC at $6.37 ¼, up 11 ½ cents, Chicago at $6.70 ½, up 10 cents.
  • Weekly export sales were a bit light although HRS made up the lion’s share of the business at 130k tmt with Bangladesh, Malaysia and Unknown the top victims for the week.
  • Paris milling wheat remains firm in light of Russian tax talk.
  • Jordan tenders for more optional origin wheat.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 8 ¼ carry, Kansas City H/K 3 ¼ carry, Chicago H/K ¾ carry.