Ami Heesch

Feb 22, 2021

Highlights

Ag markets drew strength from weakness in the US$ and tightening stocks. Prices dew additional support from outside markets and slowed harvest and planting progress in South America. The oil world drew support from the slowed recovery pace in the southern states. US$ weakness was seen from economic optimism and promise of vaccinations.

 

 

  • The energy markets are mixed with crude oil up 2.45 at 61.49/barrel.
  • US$ down 0.249 at 90.115, the gold market is up 29-30 bucks at 1806/ounce and the CD$ up 0.00015at 0.7926.
  • DJIA up 27 at 31521, S&P down 27 at 3875, NASDAQ down 341 at 13533.

                                                                                   

    Corn

    The corn market took off supported by the upward move in the wheat market. Weekly export inspections were decent again this week.   Technical buying was noted I the corn market with Sep / Dec / Mar / May / Jul making new contract highs.

  • Closes: March at $5.51, up 8 ¼ cents, July at $5.41 ½, up 8 ¾ cents, December at $4.69 ¾, up 9 ¾ cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were 1.2 mmt compared to trade estimates 500 tmt-1.4 mmt.
  • Spreads: H/K ¼ inverse, K/N 9 ¼ inverse, Z/H 7 carry.

     

    Oilseeds

    Soybeans traded higher on harvest delays in Brazil. Harvest progress was last reported at 15% complete.  Rain events are expected to move across Brazil now through the first days of March.

     

     

  • Closes: March at $13.83 ¾, up 6 ½ cents, July at $13.77, up 9 ¼ cents, November at $12.11 ¾, up 15 ½ cents. The products were mixed with meal down 1-2 bucks and oil up 35 points.
  • Soyoil drew strength from the rally I the crude oil market. Soymeal traded lower on technicals, wit the May contract dipping below its 50-Day MA of 423.20.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 722 tmt, compared to the 300-950 tmt that the trade was estimating.
  • Spreads: H/K 3 ¾ carry, K/N 10 ½ inverse, N/X 164 ¾ inverse, X/F 6 inverse.

     

    Wheat

    The wheat market traded higher on US crop worries from last week’s deep freeze and continued weakness in the US$. Could be a few weeks before damage assessment can take place in the winter wheat areas.

     

  • March closes: Mpls at $6.37 ¾, up 9 cents, KC at $6.44 ½, up 12 ¾ cents, Chicago at $6.64, up 13 ¼ cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 325 tmt versus trade estimates near 300-550 tmt.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 11 ¾ carry (got out to 12 ¼ cents), Kansas City H/K 6 ½ carry, Chicago H/K 5 carry.