Bryant Sanderson

Apr 15, 2021

Highlights

Grain and oilseed futures were mixed today, with no fresh exports or changes in weather to trade.

  • The DOW made a new record high, trading above 34,000 on strong retail sales and unemployment numbers.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. warns that the global computer chip shortage will last through 2021 and may extend into 2022. Prices are up 10-20% this month and up 30-40% since the second half of 2020.
  • China’s U.S. Treasury holdings in February were 1.104 trillion dollars, up from 1.095 trillion in January.
  • Outside markets as of 3:00 PM Central: May crude oil at $63.33 up $0.18; U.S. Dollar index at 91.646 down 0.044; Gold at $1765.5 up $29.3; Dow at 33925 up 301.00 points.

 Corn

Corn took a small step back on the front end, but Dec held its gains and remains well above $5/bu. May corn above $6 may have triggered some cash movement on the last of the old crop. 

  • The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised their Argentine corn crop estimate from 45 MMT to 46 MMT, seeing better than expected yields at just over 14% harvested.
  • Spreads: K21/N21 13’0 inverse, N21/Z21 64’4, Z21/H22 6’6 carry. 

Oilseeds 

Soybean futures pressed higher and gained some premium against corn, but are still rangebound. 

  • March NOPA crush was 177.984 million bushels vs 179.179 estimate. Soyoil stocks were 1.771 billion pounds vs 1.822 billion estimate.
  • Egypt’s GASC bought 30,000 MT of soyoil for June 1-20 arrival at $1,250/MT.
  • Spreads: K21/N21 7’4 inverse, N21/X21 141’4 inverse, X21/F22 0’6 inverse. 

Wheat 

Wheat futures gained some ground on corn with wheat feeding getting some headlines. No change in cold and dry weather forecasts. 

  • Reuters reports, “China is expected to use up to 40 million tonnes of wheat for feed in the 2020/21 crop year,” increasing use at the expense of corn and soymeal. One feed producer has replaced 15% of corn and 3% of soymeal with wheat in their ration.
  • Russia announced they will close part of the Black Sea for military exercises. Ukraine is protesting the move as it restricts their access to ports in the Sea of Azov used for trade.
  • Spreads: Chicago K21/N21 1’6 carry, KC K21/N21 7’4 carry, Minneapolis K21/N21 8’0 carry.