Ami Heesch

Apr 16, 2021

By Kevin Stockard

 

Highlights

Grain and oilseed futures were mixed today, with no fresh exports or changes in weather to trade.

  • The USDA says they will conduct a “deeper dive” in analyzing their Quarterly Grain stocks report process this year, with findings and recommendations expected by September 30.
  • Moderna informed Canada that they will only be able to deliver 46% of their 1.2 million expected vaccine doses by the end of April. Ontario reported 4,812 new covid cases today.
  • Outside markets as of 3:00 PM Central: May crude oil at $63.11 down $0.35; U.S. Dollar index at 91.548 down 0.120; Gold at $1776.0 up $9.2; Dow at 34100 up 177.00 points.

 

Corn

Another slightly lower day for corn futures, as investment funds are already extremely long and seem to be focused on other markets until the safrinha corn weather market picks up again. 

  • Commitments of Traders data showed funds were net buyers of 20,100 corn contracts, now net long 375,800.
  • Ethanol spot bids were mostly unchanged, with SD, KS, and MO seeing some up 3-5 bids.
  • Spreads: K21/N21 11’6 inverse, N21/Z21 62’0, Z21/H22 6’6 carry.

 

Oilseeds 

Third consecutive day of gains for soybeans, as they push towards to top of their recent range. Immediate supplies are in high demand, backed up by SK/SN +4 today.

  

  • Commitments of Traders showed funds were net sellers of 12,500 soybean contracts, now net long 102,000 contracts. Funds sold 17,500 soymeal, now net long 29,700, and sold 6,700 soyoil, now long 53,300 contracts.
  • Argentine port workers are on strike in at least one port. It may be short lived, but Argentine soymeal offers have quickly disappeared.
  • Basis levels continue to soar to around +100 May for Eastern processors and MO river markets.
  • Spreads: K21/N21 11’2 inverse, N21/X21 149’2 inverse, X21/F22 0’6 inverse.

 

Wheat 

Wheat futures took a breather today after gaining 40+ cents in the past two weeks. The cold snap expected early next week could bring more bullish headlines, but might also be priced in as part of this week’s rally.

 

  • Southwest Kansas is expecting overnight temps in the 20-30 degree range Monday and Tuesday night, with 37% of the winter wheat crop jointed in that area as of Monday’s Crop Progress report.
  • Commitments of Traders showed funds were net sellers of 5,000 Chicago wheat, now net short 40,500, and net buyers of 3,500 KC wheat, now net long 400 contracts.
  • Nigeria’s Central Bank announced they “will no longer provide foreign currency for importers of sugar and wheat,” according to Reuters, in an effort to conserve currency reserves. Nigeria is the third largest importer of HRW so far this year.
  • Spreads: Chicago K21/N21 2’4 carry, KC K21/N21 7’0 carry, Minneapolis K21/N21 7’0 carry.