Patti Uhrich

May 13, 2021

Highlights

The commodity complex was a sea of red today on massive fund selling and talk of higher inflation.  Fundamentals are still supportive to the markets.

 

  • USDA announced a sale of 680,000 mt of new crop corn to China this morning (26.77 million bushels).
  • Barge traffic has been stopped on the Mississippi River because of a structural crack on the I-40 bridge in Memphis, TN.  There is no timeline for re-opening currently.  This could cause a significant problem for the movement of grains and other goods.
  • The Dow was turned around today and was up 549.69 pts at 34,137.35 as of 2:30 p.m.
  • The energy markets were lower with crude down 2.31 at 63.77 as the pipeline reopened last night after a cyber-attack.
  • US$ lower at 90.68, S&P futures are 45.50 pts higher at 4,104 pts, gold is $3.30 higher  at $1,824.40 per ounce, and July lumber slightly lower at $1453.

Corn

The corn market closed sharply lower with July corn down the limit this morning, traded off the limit for a short time, then closed limit down.

         There will not be expanded limits tomorrow since July was the only contract that was limit down.

  • The reported corn sales for the week ending May 6th were the largest new crop sales total of the year at 2.083 mil. bu.
  • Estimated fund selling in corn today at 50,000 contracts sold.
  • Closes: July at $6.74 ¾ down 40 cents, December at $5.58 ¼ , down 34 ¾ cents.
  • July support at 6.62 ½ , resistance at 7.15, contract high is 7.35 ¼ .  December support at 5.37 ¼ , resistance at 5.94 ½ , contract high is 6.38.
  • Spreads: K/N 44 ¼ inverse, N/U 87 ¼ inverse, U/Z 24 ¾ inverse, Z/H 5 ½ carry.

Oilseeds

The soybean market followed corn sharply lower

 

  • The combined soybean sales were at the very low end of expectations.  This is the 4th lowest total of the marketing year.  Bean commitments are at 98.9% of the USDA export total.
  • Soybean meal plunged lower and was the biggest loser today based on percentages.  Soyoil was lower as well.
  • Estimated fund selling in beans at 38,000 contracts, Soymeal sold 19,000 and Soyoil sold 5,000.
  • Closes: July at $16.42 ½ up 27 ¾ cents, November at $14.43 ¾ , up 12 ¼ cents.
  • Spreads: K/N 28 ¼ inverse, N/Q 61 ¾ inverse, N/X 187 ½ inverse, X/F 1 ½ inverse.

Wheat

The wheat markets were lower across the board with some rain forecast for the southern and central plains.

 

  • SovEcon (Russia) has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop to 81.7 million tonnes due to a larger than expected harvest area.
  • Estimated fund activity in wheat showed 18,000 contracts sold today.
  • July closes: Mpls at $7.41 ¼ , down 24 ¼ cents, KC at $6.57 ¾, down 33 cents, Chicago at $7.01 ½ , down 28 ¼  cents.
  • Spreads: Mpls K/N 17 ½ carry, Kansa City K/N 8 carry, Chicago K/N 25 inverse.