Patti Uhrich

May 14, 2021

Highlights

The commodity complex saw mixed trade today with soybeans slightly higher but corn sharply lower.  Cattle futures were mixed and hogs were lower.  The energy complex was higher. 

 

  • U.S. consumer prices surged the most in nearly 12 years in April as supply constraints were met with strong demand.  The consumer price index jumped 0.8% last month and 4.2% from last year.
  • USDA announced the sale of 1.36 mmt of new crop corn to China this morning, the fourth new crop sale announcement to China this week.  1.36 mmt corn = 53.54 million bushels and the largest sale this week.
  • Very wet conditions for China’s Yangtze river basin could be the reason for China’s aggressive corn purchases this past week.  They have experienced severe flooding and three typhoons over the last year.
  • The Mississippi River barge traffic began to move at 9:30 a.m. with no restrictions but according to priority.
  • China’s sow herd is up 1.1% in April and up 23% from a year ago according to the Chinese ag ministry.  They state the herd is 97.6% of 2017 levels, before ASF.
  • The Dow was higher again today and was up 360.68 pts at 34,382.13 as of 3:17 p.m.
  • The energy markets were higher with crude up 1/56 at 65.38.
  • US$ lower at 90.68, S&P futures are 45.50 pts higher at 4,104 pts, gold is $16.30 higher at $1,840.70 per ounce, and July lumber slightly lower at $1390.

Corn

The corn market closed sharply lower with July corn down 31 and December corn down 15 ½ .

 

  • July corn down 88 ½ and December corn down 93 ¾ for the week.
  • IHS Markit (formerly Informa) updated their corn acreage number to 96.849 vs. USDA at 91.1 acres, the highest since 2012.  Yield at 180 BPA vs USDA at 179.5 would give a total production of 16.018 billion bushels vs USDA at 14.95 billion bushels.
  • Estimated fund selling in corn today at 25,000 contracts sold.
  • Closes: July at $6.43 ¾ down 31 cents, December at $5.42 ¾ , down 15 ½ cents.
  • July support at 6.29 ½ , resistance at 7.00, contract high is 7.35 ¼ .  December support at 5.37 ¼ , resistance at 5.92 ½ , contract high is 6.38.
  • Spreads: K/N 41 ¼ inverse, N/U 8 ¾ inverse, U/Z 2 ¼ inverse, Z/H 5 ¼ carry.

Oilseeds

The soybean market saw slight gains with July beans up 2 ¼ and November up 4 ¼ .

 

  • July beans were down 3 ½ , and November beans were down 32 ¾ for the week.
  • IHS Markit (formerly Informa) updated their soybean acres to 88.5 vs. USDA at 87.6, the highest since 2012.  Yield at 51.0 BPA vs. USDA at 50.8 BPA.  This would give a production of 4.472 billion bushels vs USDA at 4.405 billion bushels.
  • Soyoil set a new contract high today, July at 67.58 up 1.80.
  • Estimated fund buying in beans at 4,500 contracts, Soymeal sold 3,000 and Soyoil bought 7,500.
  • Closes: July at $16.42 ½ up 27 ¾ cents, November at $14.43 ¾ , up 12 ¼ cents.
  • July soybeans has support at 15.78, resistance at 16.40 ½ with a contract high of 16.67 ½
  • November soybeans has support at 13.64 ½, resistance at 14.43 ¼
  • Spreads: K/N 17 ½ inverse, N/Q 58 ¾ inverse, N/X 185 ½ inverse, X/F 1 inverse.

Wheat

The wheat markets were mixed with some areas expecting several inches of rain this weekend.  The wheat crop tour kicks off next week.

 

  • July Chicago was down 54 ½ , KC July down 79, and Mpls July down 56 ¾
  • Rains have helped to stabilize the French soft wheat crop and wheat ratings have stabilized at 79% good or excellent for the week of May 10th.
  • Estimated fund activity in wheat showed 4,000 contracts bought today.
  • July closes: Mpls at $7.40 ¾ , down ½ cents, KC at $6.57 ¾, even, Chicago at $7.07 ¼ , up 5 ¾ cents.
  • Spreads: Mpls K/N 4 ½ carry, Kansa City K/N 6 carry, Chicago K/N 20 inverse.