Patti Uhrich

Jul 14, 2021

Highlights

The grains complex saw higher trade today with soybeans, corn, and wheat higher.  Livestock futures were lower on the higher corn price. The energy complex was lower.  

  • The Mississippi River in Minnesota is nearing record low levels causing concern about barge traffic. Red Wing, MN is at 2.28 feet with 1.8 feet being the record low.
  • The Fed Reserve Chairman Powell said inflation is likely to moderate but remain in the short-term.
  • The Dow was higher today 34,941.820, up 63.03 as of 2:03 p.m.
  • The energy markets were down hard after the OPEC+ reached a deal between Saudi Arabia and UAE.
  • The energy markets were lower with August crude at 75.27. 
  • US$ lower at 92.375, S&P futures are 11 pts lower at 4372.50 pts, gold is $16.00 higher at $1,826.00 per ounce.

Corn

The corn market saw strength today with double-digit gains and average volume. 

  • Corn was higher and started to fill the gap left on July 6th.  The July contract expired today at 6.83.
  • Ethanol production decreased 26,000 bpd to 1,041,000 bpd.  Ethanol inventories held steady at 21.1 million barrels.
  • Net ethanol margins dropped sharply by 21 cents this week and are negative 18 cents.
  • Estimated fund activity +12,000 contracts.
  • Closes: September at $5.68 ¼ up 17 cents, December at $5.58 ¾, up 18 cents.
  • September Corn: Support at 5.48 ½, then 5.25.  Resistance at 5.58 ½ then 5.88. Contract high is 6.56.  
  • December: Support at 529 ¾ then 5.14 ¼.  Resistance at 564 ½ then 5.73 ½. Contract high is 6.38.
  • Spreads: U/Z 9 ½ inverse, Z/H 7 ¾ carry.

Oilseeds

The soybean market closed higher on fund buying and hotter forecasts.  

  • Beans were higher with the November contract filling the gap left on the charts after the Independence Day holiday and traded above the 50-day moving average.
  • Closes: August at $14.53, up 38 ¼ cents, November at $13.83 ¼, up 31 ½ cents.
  • Soyoil - August at 66.22; Soybean Meal – August at 368.70
  • Canola pulled back 23.3 to close at 893.50.
  • Estimated fund buying in beans +10,000 contracts, Soymeal +6,000 and Soyoil +3,000.
  • August SB support at 14.15 ¼, then 13.72 ¾ , Resistance at 14.60 then 15.00.  Contract high is 15.96 ¼.
  • November SB support at 13.29, then 1315 ½. Resistance at 14.00-14.09.  Contract high at 14.80.
  • Spreads: X/F 3 ¾ cent carry.

Wheat

Wheat followed corn and soybeans higher as the forecast looks hot and dry. 

  • September closes: Mpls at $8.72 ¾ (reaching a new contract high), up 11 cents, KC at $6.27 ¾, up 16, Chicago at $6.54 ¼, up 20 ½ cents.
  • Estimated fund activity in wheat showed +10,000 contracts.
  • September Chicago wheat: Support at 6.39. Resistance at 6.63 ¾, then 6.77 ¼.
  • September KC wheat: Support 6.12, then 5.77. Resistance at 6.33-6.39.
  • September Mpls wheat: Support at 8.33 ¾, then 8.12. Resistance at 9.00. New contract high of 8.78 ¼.
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z 13 ¼ inverse, Kansas City U/Z 11 carry, Chicago U/Z 8 carry.