Joe Barker

Oct 14, 2020

Joe Barker



  • The US Radar summary is mostly quiet again this morning with scattered rain showers stretching across the northern US from Washington to north west Wisconsin.
  • Over the last 24 hours in South America, the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais Mato Grosso Del Sol and Parana received between ¼ and ¾ of an inch of rain with around 40% coverage.  The rest of the growing region and all of Argentina were dry.  The 6 to 10-day forecast looks a little wetter than previous models for both Brazil and Argentina.
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association reported the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is a record low 3.01%. 
  • As of 6:00 AM: Crude oil is down 20 cents at $40.00, Dow futures down 9 ticks at 28,574, and the U.S. $ index up 90 ticks at 93.5400.                          



  • The crop progress report, released yesterday afternoon, showed the US corn crop is 41% harvested.  This compares to 20% last year and a 5-year average of 32% at this point in the season.
  • The corn crop is now rated 61% good/excellent, this is a 1% decline from last week.
  • Spreads are tighter this morning: Z/H 7 ¾ cent carry, Z/K 11 ¼ cent carry, Z/N 13 ¾ cent carry, and Z/Z 3 cent carry.


Outlook: 1 to 3 lower: harvest progress is impressive



  • The crop progress report showed soybean harvest is 61% complete.  Last year at this time soybean harvest was only 23% complete, and the 5-year averages is 42%. 
  • The soybean crop condition is now rated at 63% goodexcellent… down 1% from last week.
  • The weekly export inspections report showed 79.3 million bushels of soybeans loaded out last week.  In addition, they revised up the exports from two weeks ago by 12MB.  We have already exported a total 334 million bushels of soybeans through the first 6 week of the marketing year.  This is a 76.2% increase from last year’s pace. 
  • In China, soybean futures were down 3/4 cent overnight and soymeal was down 1.30/metric ton on the Dalian Exchange.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures were down 17 ringgits to settle at 2,989 ringgits per tonne.
  • Argentina’s oilseed workers at the port of Rosario have gone on strike.  They are seeking better wages.    
  • Spreads: X/F 2 ½ cent carry, X/H 7 ½ cent inverse, and X/N 7 ¾ cent carry, and X/X 71 ¼ cent inverse.


Outlook:  3 to 6 higher:  rainfall totals in South America continue to be disappointing



  • The US winter wheat crop is 68% planted.  This compared to 61% last year and a 5-year average of 61%. 
  • Paris wheat futures were down 0.75 (0.37%) overnight.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H at 3 ¼ cent carry, KC Z/H at 9 ¼ cent carry, and MW Z/H at 13 ¼ cent carry.


Outlook:  flat to 5 lower:  the fast pace of planting has some traders talking about the potential for increased winter wheat acres