Joe Barker

Oct 15, 2020

Joe Barker

 

Highlights

  • The US Radar summary is a line of rain showers stretching across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, & Michigan.  There are also small areas of snow in parts of Idaho, Montana & Wyoming. 
  • Over the last 24 hours in South America, the Brazilian state of Parana received between ¼ and 1 inch of rain with around 60% coverage.  The Argentinian states of Santa Fe, Cordoba, Entre & Rios and Corrientes received between ¼ and ½ of an inch of rain.   6 to 10-day forecast in Brazil is still calling for widespread rains in the north central growing regions.  However, the 6 to 10 day forecast for Argentina is a little drier than yesterday’s model.   
  • As of 6:00 AM: Crude oil is down 94 cents at $40.10, Dow futures down 235 ticks at 28,179, and the U.S. $ index up 90 ticks at 93.6560.                          

 

Corn

  • Corn Futures in China settled at the equivalent of $9.73 per bushel.  This is the highest settlement price since 2006.
  • CIF Nola corn is reported to have trades at +73CZ yesterday.  With current freight values, this is above futures delivery equivalent.  Because of this, corn calendar spreads are trading their tightest levels of the marketing year. 
  • Spreads are tighter this morning: Z/H 5 ½ cent carry, Z/K 8 ¼ cent carry, Z/N 9 ½ cent carry, and Z/Z 3 ¼ cent inverse.

 

Outlook: Flat to 2 lower: overnight rains and a wet forecast for Brazil.

 

Oilseeds      

  • A CCC tender for 18.3 TMT of soybeans for shipment to Egypt closed yesterday. The tender priced at $474.97/MT FOB the Texas Gulf.  This converts to $12.927/bushel or +248 SX.    
  • Economists at the University of Illinois put out a note yesterday that said, “Current economic conditions would suggest a shift from corn to soybeans (for the 2021 growing season).” 
  • In China, soybean futures were up 8 cents overnight and soymeal was up 0.50/metric ton on the Dalian Exchange.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures were down 69 ringgits to settle at 2,2866 ringgits per tonne.
  • Spreads: X/F ½ cent carry, X/H 14 cent inverse, and X/N 13 ¾ cent carry, and X/X 79 cent inverse.

 

Outlook:  6 to 10 lower: A wetter forecast for Brazil is weighting on prices this morning.

 

Wheat

  • Technical traders are pointing to a possible head and shoulders formation in MGE wheat futures.  From a technical trader’s perspective, a close above 555 in MWZ20 would be above the neckline and would be a technical signal for another leg higher. 
  • Japan purchased 87.1 TMT of US wheat in their weekly tender.
  • Paris wheat futures were down 0.75 (0.37%) overnight.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z/H at 3 cent carry, KC Z/H at 9 ¼ cent carry, and MW Z/H at 12 ¾ cent carry.

 

Outlook:  2 to 5 higher: the US bread belt is still dry.