Ami Heesch

Nov 18, 2020

Highlights

  • The grains moved higher overnight with corn up 2 cents, beans up 8 cents, meal up 1-2 bucks, oil up 50-60 points. The wheat market turned higher with Chicago up 5, KC up 1-2 and Mpls up 3.
  • The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 94 cents, braking $42 level at $42.36/barrel.
  • US$ slightly lower at 92.34, gold down 16 bucks at 1869/ounce and the CD$ is up a freckle at 0.7655.
  • Dec options expiry takes place at the close on Friday. FND for Dec futures is Nov 30 with long positions being reported after the close on the 27th.
  • Shortened trade week next week with Ag markets closed on Wednesday evening and Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Trade resumes Friday with a noon close. 

 

Corn

  • Corn prices rose overnight on continued strong demand. Gains were limited from concerns of weakness in ethanol demand from the US and Brazil.
  • China’s hog herd was said to have grown 26.9% and their sow herd has reportedly grown nearly 32% (correction to yesterday’s Afternoon Market Highlights at 29%).
  • Brazil's corn crop was reported at 98% planted with conditions rated at 71% G/E versus 92% G/E last year.
  • Spreads: Z/H 5 carry, H/K 2 ½ carry. 

Outlook: Higher trade on demand, tightening stocks, and SA dryness.

 

Oilseeds   

  • The soy complex moved higher again overnight, making another run toward $12. Prices drew addition strength from the soyoil pit, higher energy markets and Malaysian palm oil.
  • South Korea’s Agro -Fisheries looks to purchase 75k tonnes of non-GMO soybeans for Jan-Jun of 2022.
  • February palm oil prices up 85 at 3364 ringgit.
  • China’s soy complex was firmer overnight with No 1 beans up 1 ¾ cents, No 2 beans up 30 ¾ cents, meal up 2.60, oil up 40 and their palm oil up 18.
  • Argentine weather conditions look to stay dry through the weekend with chances of better moisture to move through beginning next Tuesday.
  • Brazil struggles with dry weather conditions over the next several days while the 6-10 outlook suggests a wetter pattern to develop.
  • Spreads: F/H 1 ¾ inverse, H/N 10 ¼ inverse. 

Outlook:  Higher trade on demand, tight stocks and SA dryness   

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market bounced overnight on borrowed strength in the row crops and weakness in the US$. Prices drew underlying support from ongoing dryness in Argentina and the US Southern Plains. Gains were limited from a decent sized Australian wheat crop lurking overhead.
  • Jordan receives three offers for their tender.
  • Trade awaits results of Pakistan’s 400k tonne tender.
  • Weather looks mostly dry across the US southern Plains this week with chances of rain showers by the weekend.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 16 ¾ carry, Kansas City Z/H 8 3/4 CARRY, Chicago Z/H 7 carry. 

Outlook:  Higher trade on row crop strength and dryness in the US