Ami Heesch

Nov 19, 2020

Highlights

  • The grains turned lower with corn down 6 cents, beans down 12-13 cents, meal down 4 bucks, oi down 24 points and canola down 3-4 bucks. Wheat: Mpls mixed, KC down 2-3 and Chicago down 1-2.
  • The energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 20 cents at $41.62/barrel at 7 AM CT.
  • US$ turned higher overnight, trading up 251 at 92.57, gold down 12-13 bucks at 1861 and the CD$ down slightly at 0.7631.
  • DJIA down 70-80 ticks and S&P down 7.
  • Dec options expiry takes place at the close tomorrow. FND for Dec futures is Nov 30 with long positions being reported after the close on the 27th.
  • Shortened trade week next week with Ag markets closed on Wednesday evening and Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Trade resumes Friday at 830 AM with a 12:15-12:30 close. 

 

Corn

  • Corn prices turned lower overnight after making new contract highs in the Dec, but not in the March.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 600 tmt-1.0 mmt.
  • South Korea bought 132k tonnes of optional origin corn at $241.69/tonne C&F for Mar/Apr shipment.
  • Broiler egg sets & chick placements were reportedly down 2% below last year. This makes the fifth week in a row that numbers have come in below last year.
  • Spreads: Z/H 5 ½ carry. 

Outlook: weaker tone on strength in the US$ and a bout of profit taking

 

Oilseeds   

  • The soy complex turned lower overnight, taking a breather from this week’s higher moves. There are ideas that the soybeans and products could be pricing themselves out of the market with this week’s strength.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 600 tmt-1.2 mmt for beans, 100-300 tmt for meal and 8 tmt -40 tmt for soyoil.
  • February palm oil closed down 22 ringgit at 3342 ringgit, on ideas of slowing exports.
  • China soybeans were mixed with No1 beans down 37 ½ cents and No2 beans up 52 ½ cents. Soyoil and palm oil were higher (up 116 and 124 respectively).
  • Weather outlooks for Brazil and Argentina look mostly unchanged.
  • Chinese bean imports are expected to climb to 100 mmt and thought are that they could see a 3-4% increase each year over the next ten years.
  • Spreads: F/H 1 ¼ inverse. 

Outlook:  trading lower from technical selling and profit taking after this week’s strong moves higher 

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded lower on lack of fresh supportive news and weakness in the row crops. Additional pressure stems from strength in the US$.
  • Jordan Passed on their first tender for 120k tonnes of wheat and has issued a new 120k tonne tender for optional origin wheat.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 250-500 tmt.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H Mpls Z/H 17 carry, Kansas City Z/H 8 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H 8 ¼ carry. 

Outlook:   weaker tone in sympathy with the row crops and stronger US$