Ami Heesch

Jan 12, 2021

 Highlights

  • USDA final production and stocks data to be released today at 11 AM CST.
  •  Grain markets are mostly higher with corn up 1-2 cents, beans up 3-5 cents, meal up 1-2 bucks, oil down 42 points and wheat up 8 in Mpls, 12 in KC and 13 in Chicago.
  • The energy markets are higher with crude oil up 83 cents at $53.08, on ideas of lower inventories and increased cuts in Saudi Arabia.
  • US$ a bit lower at 90.44, the gold market is 9-10 bucks higher at 1860/ounce and the CD$ is stronger at 0.78465.
  • DJIA up 64 at 30852, S&P up 10 at 3802 and the NASDAQ up 47 at 13944.

 

Corn

  • The corn market traded higher overnight in anticipation of reductions to US and world supplies.
  • Turkey looks to have bought nearly 155k tonnes of optional origin corn at $265.65/tonne C&F for LH Jan/FH Feb unload. Confirmation of trade is expected later this week.
  • China’s Ag Ministry raised their 2020/21 corn imports from 7.0 mmt to 10.0 mmt. This compares to the latest USDA forecast of 16.5 mmt.
  • Spreads: H/K 1 ½ carry, K/N 3 inverse, N/U 34 ½ inverse, N/Z 50 inverse, Z/H 6 ¼ carry. 

Outlook: firmer tone ahead of the USDA data at 11 AM CST 

Oilseeds   

  • The soybean market traded higher on ideas of smaller US and world ending stocks.
  • March palm oil closed down 102 ringgit to 3,695 ringgit.
  • Chinese soybean values were mostly lower over night with No1 beans down 26 cents, No2 beans down 15 ½ cents, meal up 6-7 bucks, soyoil down 98 points and palm oil down 84 points.
  • The 6-10 day and the 11-15-day weather outlooks suggest beneficial moisture for central and southern Brazil with dryness in the norther portions. Argentine is forecast to be mostly dry during the same period.
  • China’s Ag Ministry raised their 2020/21 soybean imports from 95.1 mmt to 98.1 mmt. This compares to the latest USDA estimate of 100.0 mmt.
  • Spreads: H/K 3 ½ inverse, K/N 12 ¾ inverse, N/X 204 ½ inverse. 

Outlook:  higher trade awaiting USDA data 

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded higher on possible increases to Russia’s export tax and reductions to US and world ending stocks.
  • Romania looks to be the lowest offer (of four) in the Egyptian tender at $292.97/tonne.
  • South Korea bought 50k tonnes of US milling wheat FOB for April shipment (23k soft wheat at $263.87, 2k white at $269.76, 14k HRW at $273.80 and 11k HRS at $272.33).
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 8 ¼ carry, Kansas City H/K 4 ¼ carry, Chicago H/K ¾ carry. 

Outlook:   higher trade on Russian tax increase and USDA data