Ami Heesch

Jan 14, 2021

 Highlights

  • The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 28 cents at 52.63/barrel.
  • Grain markets: corn up ¾ cent, beans unchanged, meal up 2-3 bucks, oil down 80 points, Mpls up 2 cents, KC up 2 cents, Chicago down 1-2 cents.
  • US$ up 0.156 at 90.514, gold down 15 bucks at 1840 and CD$ up a freckle at 0.7883.
  • DJIA up 90 at 31049, S&P up 4-5 at 3808, NASDAQ down 2 at a12969.
  • NOPA soybean crush for December is scheduled for Friday. Average trade estimate is at 185.175 million bushels crushed (182.0-188.5). Oil stocks estimated at 1.712 billion pounds (1.553-1.800). 

Corn

  • Corn prices are mixed, with the front months slightly higher, taking a break from recent moves higher.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 700 tmt-1.2 mmt.
  • Chinese corn values were down 17 ¾ cents overnight.
  • Broiler egg sets and chick placements were said to be down 1% from a year ago.
  • Corn focus could turn to the fight for acres this year.
  • A good share of last year’s 10.0 million acres in prevent plant are expected to get planted this year, from the decent fall that was had last year.
  • Rosario Grain Exchange pegs the Argentine corn production at 46.0 mmt versus 48.0 mmt previously.
  • Spreads: H/K 3 ¼ carry, K/N 3 ¾ inverse, N/U 49 ¾ inverse, Z/H 5 carry. 

Outlook: higher trade expected to continue with gains limited from technicals

 

Oilseeds   

  • Soybeans are trading higher, although have retreated from recent highs on technicals and consolidated type trade. Prices continue to draw support from decent demand and tight stocks.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 400-1.2 mmt for beans, 100-300 tmt for meal and 5-30 tmt for oil.
  • March palm oil close down 165 ringgit at 3,527 ringgit.
  • Chinese soy complex: No1 beans down 96 ½ cents, No2 beans down 46 ¾ cents, meal up 0.80, soyoil down 180 points and palm oil down 181.
  • Weather conditions for SA mostly unchanged.
  • Rosario Grain Exchange estimates the Argentine soybean production at 47.0 mmt.
  • Spreads: H/K 2 inverse, K/N 14 ½ inverse, N/Q 49 ¼ inverse, Q/X 157 ¼ inverse. 

Outlook:  higher trade to continue on tight supplies and decent demand

 

 

Wheat

  • Wheat prices are mixed with Mpls and KC showing some strength and Chicago a bit weaker.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 250-550 tmt.
  • Japan bought 117k tonnes of optional origin wheat for LH Feb-LH Mar shipment. Breakdown is as follows: US white 14k, HRW 14k, DNS 23k, Canadian spring 43k, Australian white 24k.
  • Argentina’s wheat harvest estimated at 17.0 mmt by the Rosario Grain Exchange.
  • Spreads: Mpls H/K 8 ¼  carry, Kansas City H/K 3 ½ carry, Chicago H/K 1 carry. 

Outlook:   Mixed