Ami Heesch

Apr 6, 2021

Written by Kevin Stockard

 

Highlights                                           

  • In a Bloomberg survey of 60 central banks, 36 said they are looking into creating their own digital currencies.
  • Restaurants are grappling with a shortage of ketchup packets. The Wall Street Journal reported that Long John Silver’s had to switch suppliers after nearly running out. Retail ketchup sales were up 15% in 2020.
  • Goldman Sachs index roll from May to July starts Thursday.
  • The April WASDE report will be released this Friday, April 9th at 11:00 am CT.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is up 0.78 at $59.43/barrel, gold is up 8.3 at $1,737.10, DOW down 39 to 33,376, dollar index is up 148, and Euro is down 60 pts.

Corn 

  • Crop Progress showed corn is 2% planted, in line with average pace but slightly behind 3% expectations.
  • Southern MN and Northern IA saw 0.20-0.80” of rain yesterday and could see another 1-2” the rest of the week.
  • Weekly corn export inspections were 1.912 million metric tons vs 1.1-2.1 MMT estimates. 503,000 MT were to China and they still have 14.2 MMT in sales to ship. 

Outlook:  May futures down 1 to up 7 ¼ overnight.. CN/CZ is bouncing back a little after the strong post-report correction. Demand has not slowed down, although Argentine corn is cheaper on a FOB basis.

 

 Oilseeds 

  • AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean crop was 78% harvested as of last Thursday vs 83% last year.
  • China’s Dalian No1 soybeans were down 47 ¾ overnight, soymeal down 1.50, and soyoil up 96. Malaysian palm futures were up 63 ringgits.
  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 298,000 MT vs 150-500k MT estimates, in line with the pace needed to meet USDA export estimates.

Outlook:  May beans down ¼ to up 14 ¼ overnight.. Nov beans have traded positive for 3 straight sessions and are on the way to number 4 so far this morning. Bean oil gapped sharply higher, following Asian markets, and remains volatile.

 

Wheat 

  • USDA rated winter wheat condition at 53% good-to-excellent, meeting market expectations but worse than the 62% g/e rating this time last year. KS g/e rating was up 4%, OK up 9%, TX up 2%, and CO down 1% from last week. Winter wheat is 4% headed and spring wheat is 3% planted, both in line with average. Spring wheat is 3% planted vs estimates and average pace at 2%.
  • China sold 1.588 MMT of wheat from state reserves, 40% of offered volume.
  • Russian wheat is the lowest offered on the GASC tender at $234/MT.
  • Algeria is tendering to buy optional origin milling wheat for April/May shipment, with results tomorrow. Taiwan is tendering to buy 96,485 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Ethiopia is tendering to buy 30,000 MT of milling wheat.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections were 594,000 MT vs 300-550k MT estimates. 

Outlook:  May KC wheat up 4 to down 2 ½ overnight.. may be able to hold steady with help from other markets, but conditions around the world are generally favorable and demand is relatively low.