Ami Heesch

Apr 7, 2021

by Kevin Stockard

 

Highlights                                           

  • Ontario is enacting a month-long stay at home order starting Thursday, as they have seen an outbreak of a covid-19 strain believed to be 60% more deadly than previous strains.
  • The Federal Reserve will release minutes from their FOMC meeting today at 1pm CT. Traders are not expecting a change in interest rates and will be watching for any comments regarding the bond market.
  • Yesterday’s GlobalDairyTrade auction was up 0.3% overall, with cheddar up 2.2%, butter up 2%, and whole milk powder unchanged.
  • Goldman Sachs index roll from May to July starts Thursday.
  • The April WASDE report will be released this Friday, April 9th at 11:00 am CT.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is up 0.53 at $59.86/barrel, gold is down 9.3 at $1,733.70, DOW up 3 to 33,318, U.S. dollar index is down 134, and Euro is up 155 pts.

Corn 

  • The USDA attache to Brazil forecasts 2021/22 corn production at 114 MMT vs 105 MMT estimated for the current marketing year.
  • AgroConsult sees Brazil’s safrinha corn crop yields falling 3.6% from last year due to late planting.
  • South Korea is temporarily removing the 3% tariffs on corn and some other grains through the end of the year, although they will still have a quota.
  • Ukraine has exported 15.9 MMT of corn in the first half of their marketing year, down 25% from this time last year but 68% of APK-Inform’s 23.2 MMT forecast. 

Outlook:  May futures up ¾ to up 4 ¼ overnight.. continuation of yesterday, as CN/CZ is back up to where it started the week.

 

 

Oilseeds 

  • The USDA attache to Brazil estimates their soybean crop at 141 MMT, with planted acreage up 3.9% to 98.8 million acres. AgroConsult estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 137.1 MMT, up 8.5% from last year. Celeres estimates the crop at 135.9 MMT, with exports up 2 MMT. Conab will update their estimates tomorrow.
  • Russia approved a new sunflower oil export tax in response to domestic food inflation, starting in September.
  • Refinitiv estimates Indonesian palm oil production at 46.1 MMT and Malaysian production at 18.8 MMT. Quarterly palm oil stocks were estimated at 1.3 MMT.
  • China’s Dalian No1 soybeans were down 12 while No2 beans were up 13 ¼, soymeal up 2.10, and soyoil up 89. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 43 ringgits.

Outlook:  May beans up ¾ to up 8 ¾ overnight.. Nov beans did manage a 4th consecutive higher close yesterday, but with a nearly identical range to Monday and range bound again to start this morning. World veg oil market still going strong.

 

Wheat 

  • GASC bought 290,000 MT of Russian wheat and 55,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat, with prices ranging from $251-$252.75 C&F.
  • APK-Inform estimates Ukraine’s wheat production will be up 10% to 27.5 MMT and barley up 2% to 8 MMT.
  • Tunisia is tendering to buy 75,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat. Japan is tendering for 90,815 MT of food wheat from the U.S. and Canada. Thailand passed on their tender for 504,000 MT of feed wheat. 

Outlook:  May KC wheat flat to up 4 ¼ overnight.. still in a downward channel but bouncing back a little this morning. Matif wheat down a couple cents.