Ami Heesch

Apr 8, 2021

Written by Kevin Stockard

 

Highlights                                           

  • The United Nations Food Agency reports their world food price index rose from 116.1 to 118.5 in March, up for the 10th consecutive month to the highest level since June 2014.
  • U.S. Jobless Claims were up 16k to 744k for the week of April 3 vs 694k estimate.
  • The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and said they won’t make any changes until there is proof – not just forecasts – that their employment and inflation targets have been met. They do believe unemployment could fall as low as 4.5% and inflation could reach 2.2% be the end of the year. The Fed raised their 2021 GDP growth estimate to 6.5% from 4.2% in December.
  • Goldman Sachs index roll from May to July starts today.
  • The April WASDE report will be released tomorrow, April 9th at 11:00 am CT.
  • As of 7:15 am CT, crude oil is down 0.26 at $59.51/barrel, gold is up 5.90 at $1,747.50, DOW up 9 to 33,337, U.S. dollar index is down 210, and Euro is up 85 pts.

Corn 

  • Weekly corn export sales were 757,000 MT old crop vs 500,000-900,000 MT estimates, and 50,000 MT new crop vs 50,000-300,000 MT estimates.
  • Conab raised their Brazil corn production estimate to 108.966 MMT from 108.069 MMT in March. Yield was down 0.2% and planted area up 6.4% from last year.
  • Weekly ethanol production was 975k barrels/day, up 12k from last week and a 15 week high. Ethanol stocks were down 20 million gallons to 867 million, a 20 week low. Ethanol margins were 8 cents/gallon, up a penny.
  • For tomorrow’s USDA report, corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.396 billion bushels vs 1.502 billion last month. World corn ending stocks are estimated at 284.2 million metric tonnes, with Brazil at 108 MMT and Argentina at 46.2 MMT. 

Outlook:  May futures down 1 ¼ to up 3 overnight.. May corn made big gains against beans yesterday and is continuing the gains this morning. CK/CN not following the flat price rally.

 

 

Oilseeds 

  • Weekly soybean export sales were -92,500 MT old crop vs 100,000-400,000 MT estimates, and 338,000 MT new crop vs 0-200,000 MT. Soymeal export sales totaled 127,700 MT vs 100,000-250,000 MT estimates, and soyoil 15,700 MT vs 0-30,000 MT.
  • Conab raised their Brazil soybean production estimate to 135.540 MMT from 135.132 MMT in March. Yield was up 4.3% and planted area up 4.1% from last year.
  • The USDA will change reporting of biofuel in WASDE reports starting in May. Soy biodiesel usage will be combined with other renewable diesel and separated from food and feed uses.
  • China’s Dalian No1 soybeans were down 10 ½, soymeal up 0.50, and soyoil down 101. Malaysian palm oil futures were down 54 ringgits.
  • Average trade estimate for soybean ending stocks is 119 million bushels vs 120 million last month. World soybean ending stocks are estimated at 83.4 MMT, with Brazil at 133.8 MMT and Argentina at 46.5 MMT.

Outlook:  May beans down 4 ½ to up 1 ½ overnight.. no conviction overnight and today will most likely be quiet ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report.

 

Wheat 

  • Weekly wheat export sales were 82,000 MT old crop vs 100,000-500,000 MT estimates, and 529,900 MT new crop vs 50,000-200,000 MT.
  • Japan is tendering for 80,000 MT of feed wheat and 100,000 MT of feed barley. Taiwan bought 96,645 MT of U.S. wheat at $262.81 C&F. Tunisia bought 75,000 MT of soft wheat at $259.82-$262.42 C&F.
  • Average trade estimate for wheat ending stocks is 847 million bushels, same as last month. World wheat ending stocks estimate is 301.4 MMT. 

Outlook:  May KC wheat up ¼ to up 11 ¾ overnight.. there is talk of record cold temps in the EU and dryness in the Northern Plains that showed up in this week’s Drought Monitor, but this morning’s rally is surprising and pushes wheat out of its down trend.