Bryant Sanderson

Apr 14, 2021

Highlights

  • Equity futures are mixed this morning, showing good resilience after yesterday’s announcement of a pause in usage for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine in the US.
  • The Fed’s Beige Book report today is expected to show improvement in the economy as consumer confidence increased and business restrictions reduced during March through early April.  
  • JPMorgan Chase beat analyst estimates in their quarterly earning’s with $14.3 billion in profit or $4.50 a share, vs. analyst expected $3.10 per share. Goldman Sachs beat expectations this morning as well with their earnings at $18.60 per share vs. $10.22 expected.  
  • At 7:00 am CT: Crude is up $1.06 at 61.24, DOW futures are up 12 points at 33,582, S&P futures up 5 points at 4,138, and the USD down 0.054 at 91.790.

 Corn

  • Overnight market is higher led by the nearby contracts trading around nine cents up.
  • The May and July contracts are closing in on their highs during the overnight session. But the rest of the contracts on the curve continue to make new life of contract highs with the December’21 contract reaching a high of $5.1025 overnight.
  • Brazil’s yearly ethanol production from corn rose 58% April-March and another 25% increase is expected for this year. Large investments in Mato Grasso have led to the surge in ethanol made from corn rather than what has been used most often in the past, sugar cane.
  • Weather forecasts look mostly clear for the Corn Belt with below normal temperatures while the southern portion of Brazil continues to be dry.
  • May/July is at a 13’6 inverse, May/Sept at 64’4 inverse and July/Sept at 50’4 inverse. Dec/March trades at a 6’6 carry.

Outlook: Stronger again today as the trend is higher with the cool, dry conditions in the US and dry southern Brazil.  

 Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans are higher overnight led by the May contract trading around nine cents higher. Soybean oil is mixed while the soybean meal market is $2/ton higher.
  • NOPA crush report is to be released tomorrow. Expectations are for 179.179 million bushels, up significantly from February as analysts say strong global demand for edible oils is driving the strong crush.
  • Dalian domestic number 1 soybean price was up 49 1/2 cents overnight and their number 2 import soybean price was up 9 ½ cents. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 4 ringgits.
  • May/July at a 6’4 cent inverse, May/August at 42’2 inverse. Nov/Jan at a 0’6 inverse.

Outlook: Higher today after finding technical support yesterday.    

Wheat

  • Wheat is higher with all three classes trading around eight cents higher. The EU Matif wheat price is 3.75 euro/tonne higher overnight.  
  • North Dakota got a mix of snow or rain yesterday that appears to have amounted to about a half inch of moisture for much of state. It isn’t enough to ease the drought concerns in the state as the forecasts turn dry again for the next week.
  • FranceAgriMer increased their 2020/21 wheat export forecast to 7.55 million tonnes, up from 7.45 million tonnes last month. They left stocks unchanged.
  • The Philippines is looking for 165,000 tonnes of feed wheat for shipment in the summer months.
  • Mpls May/July sits at a 7’0 cent carry, KC May/July at a 7’6 cent carry, and CHI May/July at a 3’2 carry.

Outlook: Higher with corn higher and global prices higher. The winter wheat areas are seeing good moisture conditions, but the spring wheat areas still have major concerns.