Bryant Sanderson

Apr 15, 2021

Highlights

  • Equity futures are higher as earning’s reports this week are coming out better than expected for many major companies and a very strong retail sales report this morning.
  • Retail sales for March were 9.8% vs. expectations at 6.1% higher than last month. Retail sales ex-autos were 8.4% higher than last month vs. 5.3% expected. The strong numbers are due to better employment numbers and stimulus checks.
  • US initial unemployment claims were 576,000, down 193,000, expectations were for them to fall by 44,000 to 700,000.
  • US manufacturing production report for March is expected to show a 3.6% month over month gain. The US NAHB housing market index for April is expected to show a two point increase to 84 as homebuilders still point to strong demand for new homes.   
  • The USDA announced they will do a deep dive into their Grain Stocks reports methods. They will have their findings and recommendations by September 30th of this year with any changes going into effect after October 1st.
  • At 7:38 am CT: Crude is down $0.48 at 62.67, DOW futures are up 167 points at 33,791, S&P futures up 25 points at 4,143, and the USD down 0.009 at 91.665.

 Corn

  • Overnight market is higher with the entire curve up around four cents.  
  • Weekly export sales were 327.7k MT vs. 500k-900k MT old crop expected and 52.6k MT vs. expectations of 0-300k MT new crop.
  • May corn broke through the $6.00 mark while the December contract made a new contract high of $5.17, the highest the December contract has been since April 9, 2014.
  • May/July is at a 14’6 inverse, May/Sept at 67’2 inverse and July/Sept at 52’2 inverse. Dec/March trades at a 6’6 carry.

Outlook: Stronger again today as the trend is higher with the cool, dry conditions in the US and dry southern Brazil.  

 Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans are higher overnight with the May seeing the biggest gain of around five cents.
  • Export sales for soybeans were 90.4k MT vs. expectations of -100k MT to 200k MT old crop and 265.5k MT vs. expectations of 0-500k MT new crop. Soymeal exports were 71.5k MT vs. estimates of 75k-250k MT old crop and 26k MT vs. expectations of 0-50k MT new crop. Soyoil exports were -1.5k MT vs. 5k-30k MT estimated.
  • NOPA crush report is to be released today. Expectations are for 179.179 million bushels.
  • Dalian domestic number 1 soybean price was up 28 1/2 cents overnight and their number 2 import soybean price was up 15 cents. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 77 ringgits and have recovered all the losses from Monday’s sharp drop.
  • May/July at an 8’0 cent inverse, May/August at 47’6 inverse. Nov/Jan at a 1’0 inverse.

Outlook: Higher but trading in a sideways pattern as the tight stocks are providing plenty of support. There just isn’t a fresh news story to test the highs.

Wheat

  • Wheat is higher with all three classes trading around four cents higher. The EU Matif wheat price is 1.5 euro/tonne higher overnight.  
  • Weekly wheat export sales were -56.6k MT vs. estimates of 50k-200k MT old crop and 274.4k vs. 300k-550k MT expected for new crop.
  • Rumor of Chinese purchasing US wheat and French wheat has given the domestic and global prices a sharp boost higher this week.
  • Algeria bought about 200,000 tonnes of durum wheat in a tender.
  • Mpls May/July sits at an 8’0 cent carry, KC May/July at a 7’4 cent carry, and CHI May/July at a 1’6 carry.

Outlook: Higher as rumors of China buying wheat from US and French origins and dry conditions in the spring wheat areas is providing strength.