Ami Heesch

May 7, 2021

Highlights

  • The next USDA report is scheduled for Wednesday, May 12th at 11 AM CDT.
  • Energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 29 cents at $64.43/barrel.
  • US$ down slightly at 90.942, gold up 3-4 bucks at 1819/ounce and the CD$ down slightly at 0.82075.
  • DJIA  up 77 at 34520 and S&P up 7-8 at 4201.

 

Corn

  • Corn prices made new contract highs overnight. China’s corn prices were up 22 ½ cents.
  • There were no deliveries posted against the May contract.
  • China’s corn crop estimated at 272.0 mmt compared to 260.30 mmt previously.
  • Argentine weather conditions good for harvest activity but slows exports as water levels decline along the Parana River.
  • Spreads: N/U 73 ¾ inverse, U/Z 18 ¼ inverse, N/Z 91 ½ inverse, Z/H 2 ¾ carry. 

Outlook: higher trade on dryness and tightening global supplies

 

Oilseeds      

  • Soybean prices traded higher on borrowed strength in the vegoil markets. New contract highs were made in beans and soyoil overnight.
  • July palm oil closed up 212 at 4427 ringgit. China bean complex was sharply higher with beans up 52 cents, meal up 6 bucks, oil up 117 points and palm oil up 145 points.
  • Deliveries: 132 beans, 9 meal and 2 oil.
  • China’s bean crop seen at 18.4 mmt. China’s bean imports for April were reported at 7.45 mmt compared to 6.7 mmt last April.
  • Spreads: N/Q 51 ½ inverse, Q/X 104 ¼ inverse, N/X 155 ½ inverse, X/F 3 ¼ inverse. 

Outlook:   higher trade to continue on supply worries in the vegoil market

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded higher in sympathy with the row crops with Mpls making new highs across most all months and KC making new contract highs Sep forward. The Chicago Dec made a new contract high overnight.
  • French wheat crop conditions declined 2% to 79% G/E. Their durum crop was unchanged at 69% G/E.
  • Thailand passed on their feed wheat/barley tender.
  • IKAR lowers their Russian wheat crop estimate to 79.0 mmt versus 79.5 mmt previously.
  • China’s wheat crop estimated at 136.4 mmt.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 4 carry, Kansas City N/U 4 ¼ carry, Chicago N/U 1 carry. 

Outlook:  higher trade on strength in the row crops and Northern Plains dryness