Katie Murphy

May 13, 2021

 Highlights

  • The Colonial Pipeline restarted operations yesterday evening, the supply chain however is expected to take several days to return to normal. Crude and refined products futures were seen dropping sharply today due to both inflation concerns and the restarting pipeline.
  • Equities are trading lower this morning as concerns due to inflation continue to rock the markets.
  • As of 7:00 AM: Crude oil down 1.44 at 64.64, Dow futures down 90 ticks at 33,418, S&P 500 futures up 1.75 at 4,060.5, and the U.S$ index up 32 ticks at 90.745.                          

Corn

  • Corn prices fell lower overnight due to weakness from yesterday’s bearish USDA report.
  • Export sales for the current marketing year were reported at -113,300 tonnes compared to estimates of 100,000-300,000 tonnes. Exports for the next marketing year were reported at 2,083,700 tonnes compared to estimates of 700,000-2,100,000 tonnes.
  • USDA reported the 2021/2022 ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels, far above the average analyst estimate of 1.344 billion.
  • Strategie Grains raised its 2021 forecast for the EU-27 maize crop from 65.1 million tonnes to 65.2 million.
  • Spreads: N/U 88 ¼ inverse, U/Z 28 inverse, N/Z 116 inverse, Z/H 5 carry.

Outlook: Lower trade today as the markets react from yesterdays report.  

Oilseeds      

  • Soybean prices fell from their recent 9-month high overnight due to pressure from yesterday’s USDA report.
  • Export sales for the current marketing year were reported at 94,300 tonnes compared to estimates of 0-250,000 tonnes. Exports for the next marketing year were reported at 102,500 tonnes compared to estimates of 200,000-420,000 tonnes.
  • The USDA reported on their monthly WASDE report that they see the 2021/2022 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, up just slightly from the 2020/2021 ending stocks of 120 million bushels.
  • Soybean open interest was seen up by 17,110, the biggest changes were seen in July and November, showing increases of 8,000 and 6,000, respectively.
  • Spreads: N/Q 66 ¾ inverse, Q/X 135 ¾ inverse, N/X 202 ¾ inverse, X/F 3 inverse.

Outlook: Lower trade today due to pressure from the USDA report and a strengthening U.S. dollar.   

Wheat

  • The wheat markets traded lower overnight due to spillover weakness from the corn market.
  • Export sales for the current marketing year were reported at 30,300 tonnes compared to estimates of -75,000-110,000 tonnes. Exports for the next marketing year were reported at 268,000 tonnes compared to estimates of 150,000-310,000 tonnes.
  • Strategie Grains raised its 2021 forecast for the EU-27 soft wheat exports from 27.1 million tonnes to 27.5 million. The consultancy kept its soft wheat crop forecast unchanged at 129.6 million tonnes.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 4 ¼ carry, Kansas City N/U 4 ¾ carry, Chicago N/U 2 inverse.

Outlook:  Lower trade today as the wheat markets experience weakness due to the corn market.