Katie Murphy

May 14, 2021

 Highlights

  • Reports state that there are now at least 49 vessels and 802 barges back up in the Mississippi river due to the damaged bridge in Memphis.
  • The energy complex is seen trading higher this morning, recovering some of yesterday’s sharp losses but limited by remaining concerns regarding Covid-19 in India.
  • Equity futures continued their trek higher today as Dow and S&P futures attempt to gain back some of the sharp losses seen earlier in the week due to inflation concerns.
  • Chinese state television reported that China’s sow herd grew by 1.1% in April compared to the previous month and is up 23% year over year.  
  • As of 7:00 AM: Crude oil up 0.84 at 64.66, Dow futures up 185 ticks at 34,123, S&P 500 futures up 29.25 at 4,136.25, and the U.S$ index down 298 ticks at 90.454.                          

Corn

  • Corn prices were seen rebounding from yesterday’s sharp losses where they were seen hitting a two-week low. Corn is currently set to see a weekly loss of 7%, the largest one-week loss since August 2019.
  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that its 2021 early grain sowing is almost complete.  74% of the planted area is said to be corn, and the ministry stated that Ukraine could harvest over 75 million tonnes of grain this year vs 65 million in 2020.
  • Open interest was seen down by 16,320 contracts after yesterday’s sell off.
  • Spreads: N/U 86 ¼ inverse, U/Z 23 ¼ inverse, N/Z 109 ½ inverse, Z/H 5 ¼ carry.

Outlook: Higher trade today as market takes back some of yesterday’s losses.  

Oilseeds      

  • Soybean prices are trading slightly higher this morning, reversing some of yesterday’s losses. Despite the sharp drop in prices, the market is still set to see a small weekly gain.
  • Open interest was reported down by 7,840 contracts with the July contract down by 12,800 contracts.
  • Datagro reported that Brazilian farmers have sold 15.2% of their 2021/21 soybean crop that has not been planted yet. The sold amount last year at this time was seen at 28.2%.
  • Spreads: N/Q 58 ½ inverse, Q/X 132 inverse, N/X 191 inverse, X/F 1 ¾ inverse.

Outlook: Higher trade today as the market recovers slightly.    

Wheat

  • The wheat markets trade higher this morning due to spillover strength from the corn market. Currently Chicago markets are on track to see their largest weekly drop since August.
  • FranceAgriMer reported that French soft wheat conditions stayed steady last week. About 79% of the spring wheat crop is in G/E condition.
  • SovEcon raised its 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast by 1 million tonnes to a new total of 81.7 million tonnes. A larger than originally expected harvest area was cited as the reason for the increase.
  • Currently weather forecasts are calling for beneficial precipitation in the southern U.S plains. If materialized, these rains will benefit the U.S. winter wheat belt.
  • Spreads: Mpls N/U 5 ½ carry, Kansas City N/U 5 ½ carry, Chicago N/U ½ inverse.

Outlook:  Higher trade today as wheat gains direction from the corn market and a weaker U.S. dollar.