Bryant Sanderson

Jun 11, 2021

Highlights

  • Equity futures are higher this morning with the S&P 500 making a record high close yesterday. The 10-year treasury yield is just above 1.4%, close to the lows in early March.
  • Even with the sharp rise in May CPI by 5%, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not change their current policy.
  • President Biden and G-7 leaders are expected to endorse a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15% today.
  • As of 7:20 AM: Crude oil down 0.07 to 70.22, Dow futures up 68 at 34,529, S&P 500 futures up 5.00 at 4243.00, and the U.S. $ index up 0.282 at 90.360. 

Corn

  • Corn is lower overnight after yesterday’s stronger performance on a friendly USDA WASDE report. There is a large storm system that has gone through a large portion of North and South Dakota this morning.  
  • With the June WASDE report past, the market turns all of its attention on the weather and the forecasts until the June 30th acreage and grain stocks reports.
  • Weather forecasts are expecting dry conditions over the next 10 days for much of the Corn Belt after the storm system in the Dakota’s passes through this morning.
  • Open interest was up 17,500 with N down 34,400, U up 36,400 and Z up 6,800.
  • Spreads: N/U 64’4 inverse, N/Z 87’2 inverse, U/Z 22’6 inverse, Z/H 6’0 carry. 

Outlook: Lower, pressured by a strong storm system across the northwest Corn Belt this morning.   

Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans are lower overnight, after the USDA made slight increases to old and new crop ending stocks and a large storm system moving through much of North and South Dakota this morning.  
  • Malaysian palm oil futures were down 181 ringgits to 3663 ringgits, making that a drop of 466 ringgits for the week. The weaker palm oil futures are pressuring soybean oil futures this morning with the July contract down 1.37, making new lows for the week.
  • Open interest was up 1,420 with N down 19,800 and X up 15,000.
  • Spreads: N/Q 38’6 inverse, N/X 94’6 inverse Q/X 56’2 inverse, X/F 1’4 carry. 

Outlook: Lower, pressured by a strong storm system across the northwest Corn Belt this morning. 

Wheat

  • Weaker across all three wheat classes led by the Minneapolis market as a large storm system is passing through much of North and South Dakota and Manitoba this morning. Matif wheat is down 2.25 euro overnight to 210.25 euro/tonne.
  • The USDA raised their hard red winter wheat products estimate yesterday to 771 million bushels vs. 759 million bushels expected. Old crop all wheat stocks were a little lighter than expected as exports were raised by 20 million bushels with new crop stocks smaller than expected as well. The new crop yield estimate was raised to 50.7 bu/acre, 3rd highest in history.  
  • FranceAgriMer increased their soft wheat crop ratings from 80% to 81% in the good/excellent categories.
  • Mpls N/U 6’2 carry, Kansas City N/U 8’0 carry, Chicago N/U 5’2 carry. 

Outlook: Lower as a strong storm system is going through much of the spring wheat area this morning.