Ami Heesch

Jul 9, 2021

Highlights

  • Grains: Corn 3 lower, beans 5 higher, mela 1-2 bucks lower, oil 54 points higher, Mpls up 5 cents, KC up 4 cents, Chicago down 3 cents, and the oats are up 1 ¼ cents.
  • The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 84 cents at 73.78/barrel.
  • US$ down 137 at 92.280, gold up 50 cents at 1800/ounce and CD$ a freckle lower at 0.7973.
  • DJIA up 247 at 34541 and the S&P up 21 at 4334.
  • Last trading day for July futures is Wednesday, July 14th. Expiration is at noon Chicago Time.
  • USDA S&D report scheduled for Monday at 11 AM Chicago Time.

 

Corn

  • The corn market traded lower on weather, despite optimism for a friendly USDA report on Monday.
  • Fund length was last reported a 206k contracts.
  • There were no deliveries posted against the July contract.
  • Weekly export sale are estimated at 0-950 tmt.
  • Argentina’s corn harvest near 56% complete. This compares to 52% last week and 86% last year. Hearing reports of decent yields.
  • Brazil’s Safrinha crop is said to be yielding better than expected, despite adverse weather conditions throughout the growing season.
  • Spreads: U/Z 14 ½ inverse, Z/H 7 ¾ carry, Z/N 13 ¾ carry (consider moving short Dec hedges to the Mar between 7-9 cents and/or Dec to the July at 14 cents). 

Outlook:  lower trade on favorable weather ahead of pollination

 

Oilseeds      

  • The soybean market continues to garner support from spillover strength in soyoil and other related oil markets. Gains could be limited from a favorable weather outlook for this and next week.
  • Weekly export sales estimates: 100-775 tmt for beans, 150-600 tmt for meal and 0-15 tmt for soyoil.
  • Fund length last reported at 86k contracts in beans, 18k meal and 42k soyoil.
  • September palm oil traded 123 higher at 3,892 ringgit.
  • China beans: No 1 up 30 ¼ cents, No 2 up 19 ¼ cents, meal up 1-2 bucks, oil up 123 points, palm oil up 183 points.
  • There were no deliveries posted against the July contract.
  • Spreads: Q/X 51 ¼ inverse, X/F 4 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  higher trade on strength in vegoil markets and crude oil

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market trade mixed overnight with Chicago weaker on a lower corn market. Mpls and KC traded higher on dry conditions in the Northern Plains and harvest progress moving past half-way with reports of lower yields coming in.
  • Deliveries: zero Chicago, 1 KC and 6 Mpls.
  • Iran and Algeria bought 30k tonnes of wheat.
  • French wheat crop rated 79% G/E. Harvest off to a slow start from wet weather conditions. Harvest progress reported at 1% compared to 10% at this time last year.
  • China continues to source feed wheat needs from France.
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z 6 ½ inverse, Kansas City U/Z 11 carry, Chicago U/Z 8 ½ carry. The Mpls Sep sits at a 218-cent premium to the KC Sep and a 194-cent premium to Chicago Sep. 

Outlook:  Mixed on crop worries and spillover weakness in the corn market