Ami Heesch

Jul 15, 2021

Highlights

  • Energy markets are mostly lower with crude oil down 1.22 at 71.89/barrel.
  • US$ up 0.124 at 92.534, gold up 1-2 bucks at $1826/ounce, and the CD$ down 0.00165 at 0.79775.
  • DJIA down 159 at 34656, S&P down 15 at 4352, NASDAQ up 3-4 at 14888.

     

    Corn

  • The corn market traded lower on favorable weather this week with ideas that conditions will have improved. Losses could be limited from hot/dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, along with heat returning to the US during prime pollination time.
  • China corn values were ¾ cent higher.
  • Fund length estimated at 213k contracts.
  • Spreads: U/Z 9-10 inverse.......Z/H 7 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  lower on ideas of improving crop conditions

 

Oilseeds      

  • The soybean market traded mixed with favorable weather this week met with higher vegoil markets and ongoing ides of tight stocks. Argentina low water river logistics continue.
  • Hearing bids continue to roll to basis the November.
  • Weekly export sales are estimated at 100-950 tmt for beans, 275-650 tmt for meal and minus 3 tmt to 15 tmt for soyoil.
  • Fund length estimated at 115k contracts.
  • October palm oil closed up 148 ringgit at 4,111 ringgit.
  • China markets: No1 beans down 46 ¾ cents (domestic), No 2 up 18 ½ cents (import), meal up 6-7 bucks, soyoil up 74 points and palm up 105.
  • Spreads: Q/X 71 inverse......X/F 3 ½ carry (consider rolling November hedges to Jan at current levels). 

Outlook:  Mixed

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market was mixed overnight with Mpls holding strong on hot/dry weather for the Northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies over the next couple of weeks.
  • Canada’s wheat crop is expected to see significant losses with estimates closer to 23.0 mmt versus 35.0 mmt last year. Exports could be down as much as 12.0 mmt if current situation continues on into August.
  • Mpls Sep through May 22 made new contract highs overnight.
  • Weekly export sales estimates range from 200-500 tmt.
  • IKAR lowers their Russian wheat crop estimate to 81.5 mmt because of hot/dry weather conditions in Southern Russia.
  • EU’s soft wheat crop estimated at 133.0 mmt versus 131.1 mmt previously.
  • Japan bought 119k tonnes of wheat for September shipment (24k US white, 10k HRW, 28k HRS, 32k Canadian spring and 24k Australian white).
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z 13 ¾ inverse......Kansas City U/Z 11 carry, Chicago U/Z 8 carry. 

Outlook: Mixed