Jim Warren

Jul 21, 2021

Highlights

  • ·Weather forecasts continue to show above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the country the next two weeks.
  • Natural Gas futures made new contract highs of 3.961 overnight, the highest price since December 2018, pushed by strong energy usage and export demand.
  • Dow Jones futures recovered all of Monday’s losses in overnight trade and are currently consolidating.
  • August grain options expire this Friday, July 23rd.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up .101at 93.074, Crude Oil up $.79 at $67.99, Dow futures up 83 at 34483, and Gold down $11.40 at $1800.00.

Corn

  • A group of bipartisan senators introduced a bill to eliminate the national mandate to blend ethanol into fuel, saying there are better alternatives for blending.
  • Reports are circulating that the Biden administration is delaying the annual EPA proposals on RFS targets.   
  • Brazil’s National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) increased their estimate of Brazil’s July corn exports by 160tmt to 3.195mmt.
  • Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated that farmers there have sold 33.6mmt of their corn crop.  USDA currently estimates their total crop size at 48.5mmt.
  • China plans to auction 23.4tmt of corn on Friday that they had bought from Ukraine.
  • Open interest increased only 630 contracts in yesterday’s price recovery. 

Outlook: December corn has slightly exceeded yesterday’s high in light overnight trading, extending a little further into the gap just below $5.80 made July 6th .

Oilseeds

  • ANEC raised their estimate of Brazil’s July soybean exports by 482tmt to 9.437mmt.
  • Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated that farmers there have sold 25.1mmt of soybeans from this year’s crop.  USDA estimated their total crop size at 46.5mmt. 

Outlook: Soybeans are working on their second inside day of trading in a row, in very light volume.

Wheat

  • Russia’s wheat exports were 37.6mmt in 2020/2021 according to Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture.  USDA is currently at 38.5mmt.
  • Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated 23.5mmt of wheat has been harvested so far, compared to 27.7mmt a year ago.  Yields are estimated at 3.45 tonnes/ha (approximately 51.2 bu/acre) vs 3.47 t/ha a year ago.
  • KC Spot wheat basis has increased a dime the past two days on some of the 12% protein bids, suggesting that level is seeing increased demand.
  • The CCC awarded a tender for 50tmt HRW to donate to Sudan at a price of $292.10/tonne for FH August delivery.
  • Thailand is thought to have passed on their tender for 138tmt of feed wheat due to high prices. 

Outlook: KC and Chicago wheat are trading higher this morning while MPLS has pulled back slightly.