- Weather forecasts continue to show above normal temperatures for much of the country the next two weeks, but recent model runs have shown a little more precipitation than before.
- August grain options expire tomorrow, Friday, July 23rd.
- First Notice day for deliveries of August futures is next Friday, July 30th.
- Coffee futures have made new contract highs the last two days in a row, driven by recent freezes in Brazil. The nearby September futures have risen 21% in the last 3 days.
- Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar down .074 at 92.680, Crude Oil up $.52 at $70.82, Dow futures up 50 at 34739, and Gold down $6.80 at $1796.60.
- Corn total exports were a negative 40.7tmt vs estimates of 0 to 700tmt in today’s weekly export sales report. China cancelled 160tmt of old crop and now has 4.426mmt of old crop sales remaining to be shipped, with 6 weeks left in the marketing year.
- Ethanol stocks increased 1.38 million barrels last week to 22.52 million barrels, the largest weekly increase in over a year. Gasoline demand was just slightly higher than the previous week.
- The U.S. Ag Attache in India raised their corn export estimate to 2.8mmt due to India’s lower prices relative to world values.
Outlook: Improving weather forecasts plus disappointing exports are weighing on the market.
- Soybean exports were 238.3tmt vs estimates of 50 to 650tmt, soymeal were 87.4tmt vs estimates of 175 to 500tmt and soyoil were .7tmt vs estimates of -20 to +20tmt.
- Brazil’s 2021/2022 soybean crop is estimated by market consultancy Patria Agronegocios to increase 6% from this year to 144.7mmt, as the area planted is expected to increase almost 7% to 40.85 million hectares (100.94 million acres). USDA is currently 144mmt on production.
- China’s nearby soybean futures closed down 23 cents/bu overnight.
Outlook: Pressure on prices with better weather forecasts, but very light volume trade.
- Wheat exports were 478.2tmt vs estimates of 350 to 600tmt.
- Record rainfall in Germany and China has raised concerns over wheat quality from their current harvests. 27% of China’s wheat crop is grown in the affected Henan province. Also hearing reports of sprouting issues in some U.S. SRW wheat areas.
- The U.S. Ag Attache in Canada lowered their estimate of wheat yields there to 3.37 tonnes/hectare (50.05 bu/acre); USDA was at 3.48 t/h (51.6 bu/acre). They also warned they may lower it again once the full effects of recent weather are realized.
- The Wheat Quality Council’s HRS tour will commence next week. You can follow our CHS Hedging’s participants at @hedgeit on Twitter at that time. CHS Hedging on Twitter
- The CCC issued a tender for 72.8tmt of HRW for donation to Ethiopia for shipment September 25th – October 5th.
- MPLS wheat has pulled back the last three days, yet open interest continues to rise; it has increased every day since July 8th .
Outlook: Weather again, MPLS prices have now dropped back within their upward channel.