Patti Uhrich

Jul 27, 2021

Highlights

  • Corn, Soybeans, and wheat all higher this morning on deteriorating crop conditions and hot/dry weather forecasts.
  • First notice day for August futures is Friday.  Longs need to be out by the close of day on Thursday or risk taking delivery.
  • The August WASDE report will be released on August 12th.
  • Argentina declares a state of water emergency due to the shallowness of the Parana River.
  • China’s Henan province has seen heavy rains and massive flooding.  This area is one of the largest Chinese areas for agriculture and pork production.
  • US Dollar is 0.014 higher at 92.660 pts. crude oil is .01 cents higher per barrel at $71.90, S&P futures are 6.00 pts lower at 4,408.00, and gold is $0.50 lower at $1798.75 ounce.

Corn

  • Corn opened higher overnight as the crop ratings were lowered and excessive heat is forecast for this week.
  • Crop conditions showed good/excellent corn ratings dropped 1% to 64% G/E; corn silking 79%, 18% dough.
  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier estimated the U.S. corn yield at 175.5 bpa.
  • Estimated fund positions: 127,000.
  • CU up 8 ¾, at $5.58 ¾ and CZ up 8 ¾ at $5.55 ½.  

Outlook:  Higher trade today as forecasts remain very hot and dry across much of the growing area.

Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans opened the evening session stronger on double-digit gains.
  • Crop conditions showed good/excellent bean ratings dropped 2% to 58%; 76% blooming and 42% setting pods.
  • Dr. Cordonnier estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 50.0 bpa.
  • China’s soybean imports are set to slow sharply in late 2021 on curbed meal use.
  • Estimated fund positions: Soybeans 22,000; Soymeal -6,000; Soyoil 24,000.
  • SQ is up 16 at $14.28 ¾, and SX is higher 17 ¼, at $13.78 ¼. 
  • August Meal is up $4.80 at $358.4 and soy oil is higher to start out the morning.
Outlook:  Higher trade on the hot weather forecast for the start of August

 

Wheat

  • Chicago and KC wheat are trading slightly higher, while Mpls wheat is double-digit higher.
  • The scouts on the Spring wheat crop tour begin sampling in North Dakota today.  Watch for updates on Twitter @hedgeit or @wheattour21
  • U.S. spring wheat crop conditions declined 2% to 9% good/excellent, 97% headed.
  • Winter wheat crop conditions: 84% harvested.
  • KC September is up 4, at $6.43, Mpls September is up 11 ¼, at $8.91, and Chi September is higher 1, at $6.78.

Outlook:   Mpls wheat higher today on poorer conditions, rest of wheat complex may follow.