Ami Heesch

Sep 10, 2021

Highlights

  • USDA S&D out at 11 AM (CDT) today.
  • Energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil up 1.38 at 69.52/barrel.
  • US$ slightly lower at 92.392, gold down a buck at 1797, CD$ up slightly at 0.79375.
  • DJIA up 178 at 35045 and S&P up 20 at 4512.
  • Oil markets firm on tightening supplies.
  • US$ weakened on uncertainty towards the possibility of ending current stimulus after President Biden spoke with Chinese Xi Jinping yesterday.   

 

Corn

  • Corn was a tad firmer overnight after recent technical weakness.  The UDSA is expected to increase corn production, yield and ending stocks in today’s S&D report.
  • There were no deliveries posted against the September contract.
  • Average trade estimate for weekly export sales: 700 tmt-1.3 mmt.
  • China corn prices were 2 ¼ cents weaker overnight.
  • Fund length was last estimated at 226k contracts.
  • December open interest was down 11,600 contracts.
  • China auctioned off nearly 13k tonnes of imported GMO corn and 3K non-GMO corn.
  • China’s Ag Ministry estimated their corn imports at 26.0 mmt, on par with the latest USDA estimate.
  • China looks to reduce the amount of corn used for feed by 3.0 mmt to 187 mmt because of lower hog prices.
  • EU corn crop raised to 67.3 mmt, up from 65.0 mmt previously.
  • Spreads: Z/H 8 ¾ carry, H/K 4 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  slightly higher after recent weakness and ahead of USDA data   

 

Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans were slightly higher after the past few days of losses. Consolidated type trading expected ahead of the USDA report later today.
  • Average trade estimates for weekly export sales: 900 tmt-1.7 mmt for beans, 75-400 tmt for meal, and 0-22 tmt for soyoil.
  • November palm oil closed sharply lower, down 114 ringgit at 4,278 ringgit.
  • China soy: No 1 beans up 25 ¼ cents, No 2 beans down 20 ¾ cents, soymeal up 3-4 bucks, soyoil down 142 points and palm down 211.
  • There were no deliveries for beans, meal, or oil.
  • Fund length was estimated at 50k contracts for beans, 2k meal and 40k contracts of oil.
  • Spreads:  X/F 8 ¼ carry, F/H 4 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  consolidating after recent weakness and ahead of UDSA report      

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market was mixed with pressure stemming from improved conditions in Australian and Argentine wheat crop, along with bigger than expected supplies of wheat in Canada.
  • Average trade estimates for weekly export sales at 200-450 tmt.
  • There were no deliveries posted against the September contract.
  • Tunisia bought 75k tonnes of wheat with lowest offer near $351.97/tonne C&F.
  • EU wheat crop estimated at 143.4 mmt versus 145.8 mmt previously.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 9 ½ inverse, Kansas City Z/H 9 ½ carry, Chicago Z/H 10 ¼ carry. 

Outlook:  Mixed with Mpls on the defensive from fund selling and technicals