Ami Heesch

Sep 13, 2021

 Highlights

  • September futures expiry takes place at noon CDT tomorrow (Sep 14). 
  • The USDA Small Grains Summary and Sep 1 Grain Stocks reports are scheduled for September 30th.
  • The energy markets are mostly stronger with crude oil up 54 cents at $70.26/barrel.
  • US$ stronger, up 0.279 at 92.860, gold down a buck at 1789/ounce, CD$ down 0.00130 at 0.78865.
  • DJIA up 205 at 34813, S&P up 25 at 4483, NASDAQ up 80.25 at 15.514.
  • The oil market supported from disruptions at the US gulf.
  • Export facilities restore is thought to be making decent progress at the US gulf.
  • US stocks are higher as the investment community keeps a watchful eye on inflation and monetary/tax policies.
  • US$ strengthens on expectations that stimulus could decline sooner than late, regardless of increase in virus cases.

 

Corn

  • The corn market was on the defensive for bigger crop ideas as reported by the UDSA last week.
  • Crop progress/conditions report is expected to show an improvement in crop conditions. Last week the crop was rated at 59% G/E with 21% being mature.
  • China corn was 7 cents lower overnight.
  • There were no corn deliveries posted against the September contract.
  • December open interest was down 12k contracts.
  • Spreads: Z/H 9 ½ carry, H/K 5 ¼  carry. 

Outlook:  Lower trade on increased USDA crop forecast last week    

 

Oilseeds      

  • The soybean market traded lower overnight on bigger crop ideas from late August rain events across the Us Midwest. Losses limited somewhat from consistent Chinese demand for US soybeans over the past few weeks.
  • Crop conditions are expected to have improved from recent rain events. Last week the crop was rated at 57% G/E (18% dropping leaves and 96% setting pods).
  • November palm oil closed up 40 ringgit to 4,318 ringgit on reductions in India’s import tax.
  • China beans: No 1 up 17 ¾ cents, No 2 up 31 ¼ cents, meal up 7-8 bucks, soyoil down 52 points and palm down 53 points.
  • Deliveries: zero beans/meal and 39 soyoil.
  • Spreads: X/F 8 ½ carry, F/H 4 ¾ carry. 

Outlook:  Lower on increased production and ending stocks      

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded lower on increased world supplies, as reported by the DSA last Friday.
  • Crop progress was reported at 5% planted for winter wheat with spring wheat harvest at 95% complete.
  • Deliveries: 60 contracts in Chicago, 1 contract in KC and zero contracts in Mpls.
  • Saudi Arabia bought 382k tonnes of optional origin wheat at an average price of $355.68/tonne C&F.
  • Russian wheat prices were higher, nine weeks running on significant increases in their export tax. This week’s export tax is up $6 at $52.50/tonne.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 9 ¼ inverse, Kansas City Z/H 9 carry, Chicago Z/H 10 ¼ carry. Mpls Dec sits at a 1.90 premium to Chicago (high was near $2.18) and a 1.94 premium to KC Dec (high was near $2.58). 

Outlook: Lower trade on easing world supply concerns