Ami Heesch

Sep 14, 2021

 Highlights

  • NOPA soybean crush report scheduled for tomorrow.
  • StatsCan updated production report scheduled for this morning.
  • Energy markets are mostly firmer with crude oil up 32 cents at $70.78/barrel.
  • US$ turns weaker, down 0.038 at 92.638, gold down 8-9 bucks and CD$ up 0.00100 at 0.79045.
  • DJIA down 45 at 34825, S&P down 4-5 at 4464, NASDAQ down 23 at 15407.
  • Nicholas status changed to a tropical storm after bringing heavy rains to Texas and Louisiana. There are concerns of widespread flooding and power outages as it moved along the coast.

 

 

Corn

  • The corn market traded slightly higher (4-cent trading range) on declining crop conditions. Gains limited as harvest activity gets in full bloom.
  • There were no deliveries posted against the September contract.
  • Support seen in the Dec corn at $5.10 and again at $5.00. still keeping a watchful eye on the unfilled gap from $4.80 ¾-$4.77 ½ back on March 31st.
  • Fund length was last estimated at 196k contracts.
  • US gulf is in the restore stage. While progress is looking hopeful there appears to be a few weeks out before operations are back up and running at full force.
  • Crop conditions declined 1% to 58% G/E. Harvest was reported at 4% complete versus 5% last year and 5% on average.
  • China continues to sell imported GMO corn (2k tonnes).
  • China corn prices were down 5 ½ cents overnight.
  • Spreads: Z/H 8 ½ carry, H/K 5 carry, N2/Z2 29 ¾ inverse. 

Outlook: rangebound with a weaker tone as harvest activity gains momentum     

 

Oilseeds      

  • The soybean market continues to draw strength from Chinese demand for beans. While not as robust as in past years, their buying has been steady for the past several days.
  • Crop conditions were unchanged at 57% G/E. Harvest progress was not yet reported as some areas have just begun scratching the surface on bean harvest.
  • Funds were last estimated to be long 55k beans, short 3k meal and long 44k soyoil contracts.
  • Deliveries were zero for beans, meal, and oil.
  • Palm oil continues strong on hopes of improving demand with gains limited from ample supplies. November closed up 22 ringgit at 4,340 ringgit.
  • China beans: No 1 beans down 18 ½ cents, No 2 beans up 3 cents, soymeal up 2-3 bucks, soyoil 34 points lower and palm oil 17 points higher.
  • Spreads: X/F 8 ½ carry, F/H 4 carry. 

Outlook: higher trade on consistent demand        

 

Wheat

  • The wheat market traded higher overnight on concerns of tightening global supplies of good quality protein wheat.
  • Fund short was last estimated at 9k contracts of Chicago wheat.
  • Deliveries: zero Mpls, 3 KC and 6 Chicago.
  • Japan is in this week for 119k tonnes of optional origin wheat ( 11k US white, 33k HRS, 15k HRW, 30k Canadian spring, 30k Australian white) for Oct/Nov shipment.
  • Winter wheat harvest moves along with plantings estimated at 12% complete compared to 8% on average.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 10 inverse, Kansas City Z/H 8 ¾ carry, Chicago Z/H 10 ¼ carry. 

Outlook: higher trade on supply concerns