Jim Warren

Sep 22, 2021

Highlights

  • Today is the first day of Autumn, just as a Harvest Moon wanes.
  • Britain made a deal with CF Industries to keep two of their fertilizer plants open, despite high gas prices, to keep supplies of CO2 flowing to the food industry there.
  • October grain options will expire this Friday, September 24th.
  • First Notice day for deliveries of October futures is September 30th.  USDA’s Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released that same day.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar down .017 at 93.187, Crude Oil up $1.07 at $71.56, Dow futures up 183 at 33981, and Gold down $5.10 at $1771.00.

Corn

  • The OIE reported an outbreak of African Swine Fever in Haiti, the first in 37 years, less than two months after neighboring Dominican Republic reported an outbreak.
  • December Urea futures jumped $30/ton higher yesterday, to a new high of $570/ton, as numerous supply constraints continue to affect this market.
  • China’s November corn futures were almost 6 cents higher overnight, after returning from their holiday.
  • Volume in yesterday’s trade was very light, the second lightest day since March. 

Outlook: December corn is recovering in overnight trade after re-testing the 200 day moving average yesterday.

Oilseeds

  • China’s markets re-opened after their Mid-Autumn Festival, and their nearby Dalian soybean futures were 33 ¼ cents lower last night. 
  • Matif November Rapeseed futures have made new contract highs 6 out of the last 7 trading sessions.
  • According to the U.S. Ag Attache, India has approved 3 more seaports in order to be able to accept up to 1.2mmt of soymeal imports.
  • Anecdotal reports are circulating of some better than expected soybean yields in the Iowa Derecho area due to rotation benefits, and also in 2020 prevent plant areas in the Dakotas due to saved moisture.  There were 4.6 million more acres of prevent plant in the Dakotas last year than this year. 

Outlook: November soybeans rebounded above their 200 day moving average yesterday and are seeing continued support above that level this morning.

Wheat

  • Pakistan is tendering for 640tmt of wheat for January to February shipment.
  • IKAR dropped its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop to 74-75mmt from its previous estimate of 77mmt, because of dryness in central areas.
  • Sovecon raised their estimate for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop by 200tmt, to now 75.6mmt, because of good yields in Siberia.  USDA is currently at 72.5mmt.
  • The European Commission estimated EU’s soft wheat exports for the marketing year so far at 6.53mmt, 1.95mmt more than the same period last year. 

Outlook: All 3 classes of wheat have recovered to the area of yesterday’s highs.  Paris futures rallied to fill the gap they left on Monday.