Jim Warren

Sep 23, 2021

Highlights

  • The Federal Reserve announced they will keep the federal funds rate unchanged, and said rising inflation with increasing employment may warrant a change in policy to tapering soon, but no timeline was given.
  • Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack warned farm coops to be prepared against cyberattacks after 2 cooperatives have reported ransomware attacks this week.
  • NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook calls for above normal precipitation west of the Missouri river, in a change from previous maps.
  • USDA’s FGIS announced that a new record of 146.5mmt of grain has been inspected for export this fiscal year, which is October 1, 2020 through September 30th, 2021.
  • October grain options will expire tomorrow, September 24th.
  • First Notice day for deliveries of October futures is September 30th.  USDA’s Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released that same day.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar down .272 at 93.190, Crude Oil down $.33 at $71.90, Dow futures up 200 at 34329, and Gold down $4.60 at $1772.10.

Corn

  • Export sales were 373tmt vs estimates of 300tmt to 800tmt, in the weekly report released this morning.
  • Ethanol production was down 11K bbl/day last week, to 926K bbl/day.  Stocks were up 101K bbls to 20.11 million barrels.
  • A news story reports that the U.S. and Ukraine are in discussions to open the U.S. market to corn and wheat imports from them.
  • Oats were locked up the daily limit of 25 cents/bu yesterday, so they will have expanded limits of 40 cents/bushel today.  The December contract was 32 ¼ cents higher at one time overnight. 

Outlook: December corn is testing resistance at its 20 day moving average.  Volume remains very small as farmers are focused on harvest and traders await next week’s reports.

Oilseeds

  • Export sales for soybeans were 913tmt vs estimates of 500tmt to 1.1mmt, soymeal was 261.4tmt vs estimates of 75tmt to 275tmt and soyoil was 4.3tmt vs estimates of -10tmt to 20tmt.
  • A news report yesterday that the EPA will propose reducing the biofuels mandate for 2020,2021 and 2022 weighed on corn and bean prices, until officials cautioned that numbers are not final.
  • October Palm Oil made new contract highs in overnight trade, while the CME October soybean oil contract is still 11 cents/lb below its high.
  • China’s November soybean futures were up 32 ½ cents/bu overnight and is only 16 cents from its contract high. 

Outlook: Soybean oil strength is helping support soybeans this morning, but like corn, they are also testing resistance at their 20 day moving average.

Wheat

  • Export sales for wheat were 355.9tmt vs estimates of 250tmt to 600tmt.
  • Russia’s ag ministry estimated they have harvested 72.9mmt of wheat as of this date, compared to 84.1mmt a year ago.
  • December Paris Milling Wheat filled the gap it made on August 17th during its overnight rally. 
  • Traders report that Algeria is thought to have bought between 300 – 500tmt of Durum wheat in an international tender yesterday.

 Outlook: All 3 classes of wheat, plus Paris futures are finding strength this morning.