Jim Warren

Sep 24, 2021

Highlights

  • October grain options will expire today at the close.
  • The Baltic Dry Index of ocean freight was up 2% to hit its highest level in almost 12 years. 
  • Bitcoin futures are down over 7% this morning, after China’s PBoC declared cryptocurrencies illegal.
  • Crude Oil and Diesel (ULSD) futures made new contract highs overnight, but are slightly weaker currently.
  • First Notice day for deliveries of October futures is September 30th.  USDA’s Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released that same day.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up .200 at 93.282, Crude Oil down $.18 at $73.12, Dow futures down 150 at 34494, and Gold down $.60 at $1747.10.

Corn

  • Brazil has suspended import tariffs on corn through December 31st, to improve their supply and help lower domestic prices after their drought-reduced crop this year.
  • The International Grain Council (IGC) increased their estimate of world corn production for 2021/2022 to 1209mmt, up 7mmt from last month, and raised carryout by 12mmt to 282mmt.
  • The September Cattle On Feed report will be released at 2:00pm CT.  Estimates are for 97.9% On Feed, 99% Placed and 100% Marketed.  The Hog & Pigs report will be released at the same time; the average trade estimates are 98.3% All Hogs, 98.9% Kept for Breeding and 98.3% Kept for Marketing.
  • USDA announced yesterday morning a sale of 138.4tmt corn to Guatemala for 2021/2022. 

Outlook: Corn continues to trade in extremely light volume, yesterday was the 3rd lowest for the year, and this morning’s price is almost unchanged for the week.

Oilseeds

  • Reports that 20 soybean crushing plants in China have shutdown to comply with power curbs by the government has the cash price rising over there, but their futures prices were lower last night.
  • IGC left their world soybean balance sheet almost unchanged from last month with Argentina declines offsetting larger U.S. production.
  • October Palm Oil futures made a new contract high for the second day in a row, but settled only slightly higher. 

Outlook: Soybeans had a weaker session overnight, but like corn, it’s almost unchanged on the week.

Wheat

  • China is the major buyer of Australian wheat with reportedly 2mmt on the books, despite the recent tensions between the countries.
  • IGC lowered their estimate of world wheat production to 781mmt, down 1mmt from last month. 
  • BAGE estimated Argentina’s wheat production at 19.2mmt, with good recent rains; harvest is expected to begin in November. 
  • The CCC awarded 160.1tmt of HRW purchases for donation to Ethiopia for October and December shipment periods.
  • The U.S. Ag Attache raised their estimate of Mexico’s 2021/2022 wheat production to 3.2mmt, up 100tmt. 

Outlook: Wheat markets pulled back slightly in quiet overnight trade, but volume will pick up when the morning session begins.