Patti Uhrich

Sep 28, 2021

Highlights

 

Markets are quiet this morning with corn up slightly, soybeans are lower, and wheat is seeing mixed trade.  Favorable crop progress and stronger than expected yields in some parts of the Cornbelt are pressuring prices in early trade.

 

  • The September Quarterly Stocks report will be released on Thursday, September 30th at 11:00 a.m.
  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn estimate 1.0 bpa to 175 bpa and left his soybean yield unchanged at 50.3 bpa.
  • Several countries are short on natural gas supplies.  This could have negative ramifications for agriculture.
  • Russia reported an outbreak of African swine fever at the site of the country’s largest producer.
  • Energy markets are higher this morning on low supplies and higher demand. The dow jones is trading lower along with lower stock prices in Europe.
  • US Dollar is 0.199 higher at 93.582 pts. crude oil is $0.81 cents higher per barrel at $76.26, Natural gas is $0.59 higher at $5.225, S&P futures are 31.50 pts lower at 4,402.50, and gold is $15.40 lower at $1734.60 ounce.

Corn

  • Corn opened lower overnight on lack of bullish news and mixed yield reports.
  • Corn harvest is 18% complete, 59% good/excellent.
  • Weekly corn export inspections remain lower, still feeling the effects of Hurricane Ida.
  • CZ21 even, at $5.39 ½, and CH22 dn ¼, at $5.46 ¾.  

Outlook:  Trade is expected to be quiet as we await the report on Thursday. 

Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans opened the evening session lower and have remained slightly lower.
  • November soybeans took out last week’s high of 12.97 during Monday’s trading session.
  • Soybean harvest is 16% complete, 58% good/excellent.
  • Soybean export inspections continue lower also.
  • Mixed yield reports are coming in from all areas of production.
  • SX21 is dn 2 ¼, at $12.85 ¼, and SF22 is dn 2 ½, at $12.95. 
  • October Meal is dn $0.50 at $336.80 and soy oil is lower to start out the morning.

Outlook:  Trade is expected to be sideways on harvest pressure.

Wheat

  • Chicago wheat is trading higher this morning along with Mpls and KC wheat.
  • Winter wheat planted is 34%, rain is in the seven-day forecast for the HRW wheat region.
  • Chicago wheat went through its 50-day MA of 7.21.
  • KC December is up 1 ¼ at $7.22 ½,  Mpls December is up 1 ¼, at $9.23, and Chi December is up 1 ½,  at $7.23 ¾. 

Outlook:  Prices expected to continue to move higher on lower supplies and continued dryness throughout the growing areas.

 

Estimates for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks as of September 1 (billions of bushels):

Wheat Corn Soybeans
Average trade estimate 1.852 1.155 0.174
Range 1.775-1.998 0.998-1.252 0.145-0.202
USDA June 1, 2021 0.844 4.112 0.767
USDA Sept. 1, 2020 2.158 1.919 0.525