Bryant Sanderson

Oct 12, 2021

Highlights

  • Equity markets are higher this morning as the market is expecting to see good earnings reports for third quarter this week out of large banks including JP Morgan’s numbers tomorrow.
  • USDA will release their October WASDE report today at 11:00am CT as corn and soybeans are slightly lower but wheat is higher across the board.
  • At 7:05 a.m. central time, Dow futures are up 3 points at 34,379, and S&P futures up 4 at 4,355, and WTI crude is up $0.33 at $80.85.
  • The U.S. $$ is down 0.011 at 94.315, gold up 5.9 at 1,761.5, and silver down 0.080 at 22.585. 

Corn

  • Futures are lower overnight with a two-cent range as the market waits for today’s WASDE report.
  • The market is expecting US stocks to be slightly larger than the Sept WASDE report at 1.432 billion bushels with the yield to come in slightly lower than the 176.3 bushels/acre in Sept at 176.0 for this report.
  • The USDA will release the Crop Progress report this afternoon as it was closed yesterday. Harvest is expected to stall tomorrow as widespread rains are expected to fall across a large portion of the corn belt.  
  • Open interest was down 11,220 with Dec 21 down 14,600.
  • Spreads: Z/H 9’2 carry, Z/K at 14’2 carry, and Z/N at 15’0 carry. 

Outlook: Back and forth trade in front of today’s WASDE report. 

Oilseeds      

  • Soybeans are a few cents lower following yesterday’s 14 cent drop. The market broke through the summer lows yesterday and has traded even lower this morning with the November’21 futures contract at the lowest it’s been since March 31st.
  • Soybean stocks are expected to see a large jump in tomorrow’s WASDE report thanks to the Sept 30 Grain Stocks report showing old crop stocks well market expectations. New crop US stocks are expected to be 300 million bushels vs. 185 million in Sept with the yield a little higher at 51.1 bushels/acre vs. 50.6 in Sept. 
  • Malaysian palm oil futures for December were down 100 ringgits overnight as the US soyoil futures are modestly lower this morning.
  • Open interest was up 8,590 with Nov 21 down 6,900 and Jan 22 up 13,400.
  • Spreads: X/F at 11’4 carry, X/H at 22’2 carry, X/K at 31’4 carry, and X/N at 37’0 carry. 

Outlook: Lower trade in front of the report as the global edible oil market retraces from last week’s highs and the market anticipating a jump in soybean stocks in today’s report. 

Wheat

  • Higher across the board this morning led by the Minneapolis market trading six cents higher.
  • EU Matif wheat is unchanged overnight at 268.50 euro/tonne.
  • US all wheat stocks are expected to drop to 576 million bushels from September’s 615 million bushels. World stocks are expected to be at 280.82 mmt vs. 283.22 in Sept.
  • Beneficial rains are expected to fall across a large portion of the Southern Plains growing region today.
  • Egypt’s GASC is looking for more wheat for November 23 to December 5 delivery.
  • Jordan is looking for 120k tonnes for January through March delivery.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 10’4 inverse, KC Z/H at 8’2 carry, and Chi Z/H at 13’2 carry. 

Outlook: Higher led by the Minneapolis market leading up to the report.