Afternoon Market Highlights 10.15.21


Nick Paumen

Oct 15, 2021

Highlights

A strong close to the week with good strength seen across commodities and the macro markets. The DJIA has seen some major bounce back to end the week with a couple days of strong trade. Good retail sales and corporate earnings help support the macros. The crop progress report on Monday likely shows corn over 50% and soybeans well over halfway done as this weeks report showed corn at 41% complete and soybeans at 49%.

  • The USDA announced big flash sales this morning totaling 31.3 million bushels or 854,750 MT; 722,750 MT destined for unknown sources and 132,000 MT destined for China.
  • CFTC report this afternoon showed non-commercial funds long 148,925 corn contracts after selling 22,030, soybeans short 12,297 contracts after selling 12,039, Chicago wheat short 36,361 contracts after selling 11,579, KC wheat long 25,179 after selling 2,157, and Mpls long 15,896 after buying 559.
  • Energy markets are up 1.20 at 82.51, USLD up .0096 at 2.5710, RBOB up .0462 at 2.4812, and natural gas down .274 at 5.413.
  • U.S. $$ down .001 at 93.960, silver down .122 at 23.355, and silver down 30.0 at 1768.
  • DJIA up 400 at 35184, S&P up 36.0 at 4465, and lumber down 12.10 at 759.

Corn

Futures closed the day out in the upper half of the day range as technical strength and fund buying continued today. Export sales this morning at 1,039,900 MT were in the lower half of expectations but total commitments at 1.087 billion bushels are 4% above last year. There is some hope that China may return to our markets given the rising prices of wheat and cheaper corn returning to their feed rations. Ethanol production sits at its best levels in 13 weeks and margins continue to remain strong. Harvest has seen scattered delays this week as rains roll through the midwest, deferred forecasts call for conditions.  

  • CIF markets on the steady side today but we continue to see barge freight trade stronger.
  • December futures closed the week out above its 200-day moving average and close to 20 cents higher from the lows of the week.
  • Closes: December 21 up 9’0 at 525’6, March 22 up 8’4 at 534’2, May 22 up 7’6 at 538’6, and December 22 up 6’6 at 523’0.
  • For the week: December 21 down 4’6, March 22 down 5’2, May 22 down 6’0, and December 22 down 2’6.
  • Spreads: Z/H up 0’4 at 8’4 carry, Z/K up 1’2 at 13’0 carry, and Z/N up 1’2 at 14’2 carry.

Oilseeds

Soybean futures saw double digit strength on their close today, soyoil closed out the week above its 50-day moving average, and meal actually had a couple days of positive closes. Soybeans found support in the big flash sale announcement this morning. Export sales may have provided some support to as sales topped 1 MMT for the third week in a row at 1,147,800 MT. But total sales are still down 39% from a year ago. China still has some processing plants shutdown as they manage their way through an energy crisis. NOPA crush report was disappointing with it coming in at 153.8 million bushels crush in September, average estimate was 155.1 million bushels and this report is down 5% from last year. Oil stocks came in at 1.684 billion pounds vs. an average estimate of 1.663 billion pound.

  • CIF markets saw a couple slots of weakness with the balance steady for the day.
  • 2021/22 meal sales were at 365,400 MT vs. estimates of 100,000-320,000 MT and soyoil sales were 19,800 MT vs. estimates of -5,000-30,000 MT
  • November futures closed the week out rebounding after heavy losses post-WASDE, it’ll be interesting to see next week if the buying interest continues or futures settle into a range.
  • Closes: November 21 up 11’4 at 1217’6, January 22 up 10’6 at 1226’2, March 22 up 11’0 at 1235’2, and November 22 up 10’4 at 1222’2.
  • For the week: November 21 down 25’2, January 22 down 28’0, March 22 down 28’4, and November 22 down 27’0.
  • December product closes: Soyoil up .85 at 61.29, meal up 2.5 at 316.6, and board crush up 2.8 at 152.3.
  • Spreads: X/F up 0’2 at 8’4 carry, X/H up 0’2 at 17’6 carry, X/K up 0’6 at 26’6 carry, and X/N up 1’0 at 32’6 carry.   

Wheat

Mpls wheat made fresh contract highs as it remains on its trend higher, while KC and Chicago markets were able to rebound after recent weakness. Export sales were the 2nd best of the year at 567,600 MT while estimates were from 250,000-500,000 MT. Total commitments are down 20% at this point from a year ago so we have some catching up to do. Rumors continue around the market that China bought 10 cargoes of French wheat with thoughts they also bought U.S. soft red wheat.

  • December closes: Mpls up 8’6 at 968’6, KC up 12’6 at 743’6, and Chicago up 9’2 at 734’0.
  • For the week: Dec Mpls up 56’2, KC up 12’0, and Chi up 8’4.
  • New crop 22 closes: Sept Mpls up 8’4 at 827’6, July KC up 10’2 at 745’6, and Chicago up 9’0 at 738’2.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H down 0’4 at 11’4 inverse, KC Z/H up 0’6 at 6’6 carry, and Chicago Z/H down 0’4 at 12’4 carry.