Afternoon Market Highlights 10.18.21


Ami Heesch

Oct 18, 2021

Highlights

The Ag markets were somewhat quiet to start the week with price appreciation based on decent export inspections for corn and beans and the continuation of tight supplies of good quality protein wheat. Wheat prices were met with a bit of technical pressure, which capped upside movement. US stocks experienced underlying support from big tech stock appreciation.

 

 

  • The energy markets are mostly in the red with December crude oil down 22 cents at $81.51/barrel.
  • US$ traded both sides with a slightly firmer tone, up 0.007 at 93.944, the gold market is off 1-2 bucks at 1766/ounce and CD$ up 0.00015 at 0.80765. The CD$ has seen a significant increase from the September 20 low of 0.77535.
  • DJIA down 63 at 35231, S&P up 9-10 at 4472, NASDAQ up 95 at 14992.

      

     

    Corn

    The corn market traded higher despite favorable yield reports in some areas.  Weekly export inspections were better than expected. Prices drew support from concerns of having enough acres planted next year with fertilizer at significantly high prices.

     

  • Closes: December up 7 cents at $5.32 ¾, March up 6 ¼ cents at $5.40 ½, July up 4 ¾ at $5.44 ¼, Red Dec up 4 ¾ at $5.27 ¾.
  • Weekly export inspections were 976 tmt compared to trade estimates of 650-850 tmt.
  • Harvest progress is expected to be 54% complete (49-64) compared to 41% last week. Conditions are expected to be 60% G/E (58-61), unchanged from last week.
  • Spreads: H/K 7 ¾ carry, Z2/H3 6 ½ carry.

     

    Oilseeds

    Soybean prices opened lower on thoughts of ample supplies as yields continue to be reported at or above expectations. Prices turned higher on spillover strength in meal and oil. Prices drew additional supports from solid inspections reported this morning and higher related vegoil markets.  

     

  • Closes: November up 3 ¾ cents at $12.21 ½, January up 2 ¾ cents at $12.29, July up 1 ¾ at $12.52 ¼, Red Nov up 2 ¼ cents at $12.24 ½.
  • The products were firmer with meal up 1-2 bucks and oil up 78 points.
  • Weekly export inspections were a whopping 2.3 mmt compared to trade estimates of 1.6-2.1 mmt.
  • Harvest progress is estimated at 62% complete (59-65) compared to 49% complete last week.
  • Brazil soybean plantings were last reported at 22% complete.
  • Spreads: X/F 7 ½ carry, F/H 8 carry.

     

     

    Wheat

    The wheat market finished mixed with Mpls lagging KC and Chicago. Weekly export inspections were disappointing. Country focus is on row crop harvest and not moving wheat.  Price support stems from concerns of global supplies of good quality wheat and continued world demand for wheat.

     

  • December closes: Mpls down 1 cent at $9.67 ¾, KC up 5 ¼ cents at $7.49, Chicago up 2 ¼ cents at $7.36 ¼.
  • Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 140 tmt. Trade estimates were 300-550 tmt.
  • Winter wheat planting progress is thought to be near 73% complete (70-76) compared to 60% last week.
  • SovEcon pegs Russia’s 2022 wheat crop near 80.7 mmt on favorable weather conditions for their winter wheat crop.
  • EU wheat prices climbed to new contract highs early in the session on continued Chinese business. Prices retreated as French wheat biz to China was thought to have been factored into prices already.
  • Ethiopia tendered for up to 400k tonnes of optional origin wheat. They struggle to purchase wheat as unclear procedures and specs seems to be keeping participation at a minimum.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 12 ¼ inverse, Kansas City Z/H 7 carry, Chicago Z/H 12 ½ carry. Mpls Dec sits at a 218 ¼ premium to KC Dec and a 230 ¾ premium to Chicago Dec.