Afternoon Market Highlights 10.19.21


Ami Heesch

Oct 19, 2021

Highlights

The Ag markets were a mixed bag with the corn on the defensive while the wheat and soy complex enjoyed trading on the greener side of life most of the day. ( I lost my news source this afternoon so it looks like I have been cut off for the day....will be back at it tomorrow ......sorry about that).

 

 

  • The energy markets are mostly higher with December crude oil up 40 cents at $82.84/barrel.
  • US$ is off 0.204 at 93.749, the gold market is 4-5 bucks firmer at 1770/ounce and the CD$ is a hair firmer at 0.80865.
  • DJIA up 151 at 35409, S&P up 28-29 at 4497 and the NASDAQ up 96 at 15118.

Corn

The corn market was on the defensive as harvest activity picks up. The Dec tickled $5.37 but was unable to hold at or above that level. Prices turned lower with the Dec 21 finishing the day a freckle above the day’s low of $5.29.

 

  • Closes: December down 2 ½ cents at $5.30 ¼, March down 1 ½ cents at $5.39, July down ¾ cent at $5.43 ½, Red Dec down 2 cents at $5.25 ¾.
  • The oats market was on the defensive, finishing the day down 5-6 cents at $6.56 in the Dec and $6.40 in the March.
  • CIF premiums were 8 cents weaker for October and 2 cents weaker for November. Processor bids were mixed (unchanged to +/- 5 cents). Ethanol bids were unchanged to 4 cents firmer.
  • IHS Markit estimates the 2022 corn acreage at 92.374 million acres, compared to 93.304 million acres in 2021. Yield projection is at 181.0 bushels per acre and production at 15.213 billion bushels.
  • Spreads: Z/H 8 ¾ carry, H/K 4 carry, Z2/H3 6 ½ carry.

Oilseeds

The soy complex was stronger on firming cash markets and strong demand for vegoils. Processors are said the be on the hunt for soybeans with little success so far as the farmers are busy in the fields harvesting their crops before the next rain event comes along.  

  • Closes: November up 6 ½ cents at $12.28, January up 8 cents at $12.37, July up 8 ¼ cents at $12.60 ½, Red Nov up 6 ¼ cents at $12.30 ¾.
  • The products were stronger with meal up 4-5 bucks at $322.60/ton and oil up 37 points at 62.39 cents per pound.
  • CIF premiums were 2-4 cents weaker for October and 3 cents weaker for November. Processor bids were unchanged to 3 cents firmer.
  • IHS Markit estimates the US 2022 soybean acres at 87.335 million , compared to 83.235 million in 2021. Yield projection at 51.5 bushels per acre and production at 4.455 billion bushels.
  • The canola market was stronger, up 16-17 bucks at $937.80/cwt.
  • Spreads: X/F 9 carry, X/H 17 ¾ carry, X/N 32 ¼ carry, F/H 8 ¾ carry.

 

Wheat

The wheat market tipped back a bit on technical selling and a bout of profit taking after recent strength. Global supplies of wheat are said to be tight especially with the smaller US and Canadian spring wheat crop. Winter wheat planting continues as decent pace with forecasts for a sizable increase in acres over this past year. Prices drew additional support from weakness in the US$ (which is said to make the US wheat more competitive in the world export arena).

 

  • December closes: Mpls up 6 ½ cents at $9374 ¼ (testing the recent contract high of $9.80), KC down ¾ cent at $7.48 ¼, Chicago down ¼ cent at $7.36.
  • IHS Markit estimates 2022 Other Spring Wheat acres at 12.7 million, an increase of 1.3 million over this year. Winter Wheat acres are estimated at 34.153 million compared to 33.648 million in 2021. HAED durum acres expected to increase significantly (1.950 million compared to 1.650 million in 2021).
  • Iraq wheat planted area for 2021-22 is expected to be half of what they planted in 2020-21 because of tight water supply.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 13 inverse, Kansas City Z/H 6 ¾  carry, Chicago Z/H 12 ½  carry. Mpls Dec sits at a 225 ½ premium to KC Dec and a 237 ¼ premium to the Chicago Dec.