Afternoon Market Highlights 10.25.21


Kevin Stockard

Oct 25, 2021

Highlights

Soybean oil pulled beans higher, export demand gave wheat a boost, and corn was flat on the day. Inflation is the talk of macro markets. December crude oil reached a seven year high $85/barrel but ended lower on the day near $83.50/bl.

  • ADM plans to transition half of their corn ethanol capacity to clean jet fuel production. Bloomberg projects clean jet fuel to increase from 0.1% to 3% of global jet fuel use by 2030.
  • December oats traded up their 25-cent limit to a new contract high 6.92 ¼.
  • First notice day for November futures is Friday, October 29.
  • Outside markets as of 2:00 PM Central: Dec crude oil at $83.56 down $0.20; U.S. Dollar index at 93.814 up 0.172; Gold at $1809.2 up $12.9; Dow at 35,632 up 75 points.

 

Corn

Corn futures continue to inch higher, drawing support from soaring energy markets.

  • Weekly crop progress showed corn is 66% harvested vs 65% estimate and 53% average.
  • Weekly corn export inspections were 545,127 MT, well below the 750k MT-1.2 MMT estimates and 1.3 MMT/week pace needed to hit the USDA projection.
  • Spreads: Z21/H22 8’4 carry, H22/K22 3’6 carry, K22/N22  1 carry.


Oilseeds

Bean oil was able to lift the soy complex today despite lower crush and energy markets and not much movement in soybean spreads. Export demand is on the rise and traders are on the look out for daily sales announcements as there are rumors of more buying interest from China.

  • Soybean harvest estimate is 73% vs 74% estimate and 70% average.
  • Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 2,103,505 MT vs 1.8-2.625 MMT estimates, with nearly 75% to China.
  • AgRural estimates Brazil soybeans are 38% planted and Safras y Mercado 35.8% vs 27% average, second fastest pace on record.
  • Spreads: X21/F22 9’6 carry, X22/H22 19’2 carry, N22/X22 35 inverse

 

Wheat

Dec KC and Minneapolis made new contract highs today. There are rumors in the market that Iraq is looking to buy HRW.

  • Winter wheat is 80% planted vs 81% estimate and 80% average. The first winter wheat condition rating is 46% good-to-excellent vs 54% estimate and the crop is 55% emerged.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections were 140,413 MT vs 150k-450k MT estimates, deviating slightly from USDA pace.
  • Morocco is suspending their 135% soft wheat and durum import duties starting November 1.
  • SovEcon says Russian wheat prices were up $3 to $316/MT at the end of last week. Russian wheat exports are down 29% so far in the 2021/22 marketing year.
  • Spreads: Chicago Z21/H22 12’0 carry, KC Z21/H22 2’6 carry, Minneapolis Z21/H22 23’2 inverse.