Morning Highlights 11.24.21


Jim Warren

Nov 24, 2021

Highlights

  • Happy Thanksgiving tomorrow!
  • Grain markets will close at their regular 1:20pm CT today, re-open Friday morning at 8:30am CT and then close early, at 12:05pm CT.
  • December options expire this Friday, November 26th.
  • First Notice day for December deliveries is Tuesday, November 30th.   Any long positions from option expiration will only have Monday to exit before FN.
  • The weekly export sales report will be delayed until Friday, due to Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up .234 at 96.725, Crude Oil down $.06 at $78.44, Dow futures down 134 at 35632, and Gold up $1.90 at $1785.70.

Corn

  • The average ethanol rack price jumped 14 cents/gallon yesterday to just over $3.79/gallon, exceeding the 2014 high.
  • USDA expects record ethanol exports this year, estimated at $2.9 billion.
  • The NCGA is seeking the removal of import tariffs on phosphorus and urea fertilizers from several countries.
  • Corn closed 9 cents/bu lower on China’s Dalian futures market overnight after trading 16 lower at one time.
  • South Korea’s NOFI bought approximately 133tmt corn in an international tender yesterday.  Two other feed groups there also bought about 118tmt to 133tmt yesterday.

 

Outlook: December corn broke above its downtrend line from the May high, in overnight trade.  The question now becomes whether it can close above it today.

 

Oilseeds

  • USDA lowered their estimate of ag exports by $2 billion to now $175.5 billion for this fiscal year, due mainly to $3.9 billion less soybean exports expected.
  • A new bill in the House would prohibit the EPA from lowering biofuel minimums for transportation, including retroactive changes, once that amount is finalized for a year.  Defend the Blend act.
  • Soybean Oil is trading higher this morning, at the highest price in almost 3 weeks.
  • The January/March soybean spread is trading at 11 ¼ cent carry, not far from its contract low of 12 ½ cents.

 

Outlook: Soybeans continue their sideways trade with the January contract continuing to remain within last Wednesday’s trading range.

 

Wheat

  • Australian wheat protein levels are running lower than normal due to excessive rainfall during harvest there.
  • The Philippines bought about 100tmt of feed wheat which traders expect was of Australian origin.
  • Paris wheat futures continue to trade at all-time record highs after breaching the March 2008 high this month.
  • South Korea’s NOFI passed on a 65tmt feed wheat tender, reportedly due to high prices.

 

Outlook: KC and Paris futures made new contract highs overnight with no technical signals yet of topping action.