- According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the spread of Covid-19 appears to be slowing. The seven-day average of new cases was just over 110,000 on Monday, which is down nearly 25% from the week prior. Health officials in the U.S. are concerned that variants of the virus could cause cases to spike however. Global cases of the virus are nearing 110 million.
- The International Monetary Fund is expecting Russian oil output to recover to pre-pandemic levels when the current OPEC+ supply cuts taper off. Russian crude production fell for the first time since 2008 in 2020. The OPEC+ agreement expires in April 2022.
- This afternoon an industry group will release its weekly inventory report. Tomorrow morning the EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- Amazon stated on Monday that they will purchase half of the energy produced by a 759 megawatt wind farm in the North Sea. The wind farm is expected to be completed and operational by 2023.
- The March crude oil contract is trading $0.10 lower at $57.87. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $53.97 and $45.78, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 77.12%. An RSI above 70% indicates an overbought market from a technical perspective.
- As of 10:21 am CST: April Brent is up $0.82 at $60.16, the U.S. dollar index is 0.073 lower at 90.964, while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 16.25 points at 3,896.50.
- The March ULSD contract is trading $0.0007 lower at $1.7471. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $1.6358 and $1.3766, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 81.47%.
- The International Energy Agency has stated that India will be the biggest driver of global energy demand growth in the next two decades. India will reportedly account for 25% of global growth. India’s energy consumption is expected to nearly double by 2040. Oil demand is expected to rise to 8.7 million bpd in 2040, from about 5 million bpd in 2019. Refining capacity will also rise dramatically, from about 5 million bpd currently to 7.7 million bpd by 2040.
- The March RBOB contract is trading $0.0107 lower at $1.6641. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $1.5836 and $1.3131, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 74.49%.
- A global shortage of semiconductor chips is having an impact on the manufacturing of automobiles. General Motors is extending a temporary shutdown at three assembly plants through mid-March due to the shortage. Ford was forced to cut production of the F-150 last week due to the chip shortage as well. Ford said the shortage could have a dramatic impact on earnings, lowering them between $1 - $2.5 billion this year.
- Propane prices are mixed this morning. At last look Conway was up $0.0200, trading at $0.9900. Mt Belvieu was down $0.0100, trading at $0.8800.
- The NOAA’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast are both showing a high probability of colder than average temperatures for the majority of the country. Temperatures in the Twin Cities will hover around 0 for a high for much of the next week, with overnight lows plunging well below 0 degrees. That cold weather should provide a layer of support for propane values.
- The March Natural Gas contract is trading $0.075 lower at $2.807. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.694 and $2.858, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 55.66%.
- Despite the frigid weather for much of the country, natural gas futures have slipped this morning. Forecasts for demand are showing a contraction in the latter half of the month.
- The Natural Gas Storage Report from the EIA will be released on Thursday at 9:30am CST.
Holiday Schedule: Energy markets will halt at noon CST on Monday, February 15 due to the Presidents Day holiday. CHS Energy Hedging will be staffed until noon.