Outlook: The energy market has steadied today as the presence of both positive and negative fundamentals helps balance out prices. Prices also are likely taking a bit of a pause after Brent and WTI were seen rising by 6% or more last week. This morning we are finding support from a weaker U.S. dollar along with strong vaccine progress in the U.S. On a more negative note however, gains are limited due to rising Covid-19 infections in India. India was seen reporting a record rise in cases today, lifting their total case count to over 15 million and placing them as the second worst affected country in the world. The capital region of Delhi has since ordered a six-day lockdown joining 13 other states and adding concern to markets as the restrictions are expected to weigh on fuel demand. Equities are also seeing a quieter start to the day with Dow and S&P 500 futures ticking lower after their record highs seen on Friday. The U.S. dollar fell to a six-week low today when compared to a basket of major currencies and Treasury yields are seen at their weakest level in five weeks. Although global Covid concerns remain, optimism related to economic recovery within the U.S. should continue to prove supportive for energy prices. Traders will also continue to keep an eye on current discussions between the U.S. and Iran.
- According to data from the CDC, half of all U.S. adults have now received at least one Covid vaccine dose as of Sunday. Today marks President Biden’s deadline for states to open up vaccination to all U.S. adults.
- Saudi Arabia’s crude exports were seen falling to 5.625 million bpd in February, from 6.582 million bpd in the prior month.
- JP Morgan has lowered its 2022 average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude futures by $4, now set at $70 per barrel and $66 per barrel, respectively. The bank however also revised its forecast for this year and now expects Brent to hit $70 by May, four months earlier than its previous forecast.
- The May crude oil contract is trading $0.16 higher at $63.29. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $60.66 and $55.21, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 58.84%.
- As of 9:30 am CST: June Brent is up $0.06 at $66.83, the U.S. dollar index is 0.426 lower at 91.130, while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 13.50 points at 4,162.75.
- The May ULSD contract is trading $0.0034 lower at $1.8923. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $1.8208 and $1.6728, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 60.42%.
- Data released yesterday by the General Administration of Chinese Customs showed that China’s diesel exports in March totaled to 2.81 million tonnes, near the monthly record of 2.83 million tonnes recorded in March of 2020.
- The May RBOB contract is trading $0.0009 higher at $2.0408. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $1.9788 and $1.7504, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 61.24%.
- Chinese customs data showed that gasoline shipments from China were down by 14.6% in March compared to a year earlier. Exports were reported at just 1.56 million tonnes compared to 1.83 million in March of 2020.
- Propane prices have opened the week lower this morning. At last look, Conway propane was down $0.0175, trading at $0.71750. Mt. Belvieu was down $0.0225, trading at $0.76000.
- The May Natural Gas contract is trading $0.036 higher at $2.716. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.594 and $2.680, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 58.72%.
- Natural gas futures are finding some support this morning as Earthstat Weather Models added 5 Heating Degree Days as weather no forecast to be cooler than expected across the U.S. The NOAA 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks forecast below average temps for both the Midwest and East Coast.
|As of 9:30 AM CST||WTI May||ULSD May||RBOB May||Nat Gas May|