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Outlook: Petroleum prices manage to hold strong for the second consecutive day, but are still on track to see a nearly 2% weekly loss due to OPEC+ pressures. If the loss is confirmed, this week would mark the first weekly loss for WTI since May. Supportive data on yesterday’s inventory report underpins prices this morning. Yesterday crude stocks were seen falling for the seventh week in a row, with gasoline demand hitting its highest level since 2019. Gains however are limited as concerns regarding the Delta variant and OPEC+ proceedings persist. Markets will watch closely to see if negotiations with Saudi Arabia and UAE can lead to an agreement soon. As the dispute continues to stretch on, traders are also wary of non-agreement that would lead to UAE exiting the group, therefore dissolving the alliance. Oil supplies continue to fall while demand strengthens, leading to the expectation that OPEC+ would look to ease this tightness soon and potentially strike a deal by the end of next week.

Crude

• According to Bloomberg, President Biden’s team is starting to believe that it may be too late to restore the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.
• Euroilstock data showed this morning that European refiners’ crude and oil products inventories were down by 5% in June compared to a year earlier.
• Kuwait has raised its official selling price for August by 80 cents compared to the previous month.
• The Tokyo Olympics are now set to be held without any fans as Delta variant surges have led to new emergency restrictions.
• The August crude oil contract is trading $1.13 higher at $74.07. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $72.80 and $64.80 respectively. The 14-day RSI is 61.74 %.
• As of 8:30 am CST: August Brent is up $0.97 at $75.09, the U.S. dollar index is 0.194 lower at 92.223, while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 18.5 points at 4331.5.

Diesel

• The August ULSD contract is trading $0.0272 higher at $2.1476. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.1279 and $1.9645, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 55.94%.

Gasoline

• Gasoline supplied managed to reach 10 million bpd for the week ended July 2, the highest value seen since data first started being collected in 1990.
• The August RBOB contract is trading $0.0311 higher at $2.2863. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.2248 and $2.0538, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 60.33%.

Propane

• Yesterday the EIA reported another lackluster build, causing the market to pull higher by the afternoon after trading lower during the day.
• U.S. LPG exports to East Asia are expected to have topped 1 million bpd in June, the highest exports on record, with most exports going to Japan.
• At last look, Conway propane was up $0.02000, trading at $1.10000. Mt. Belvieu was up $0.01750, trading at $1.11000. 

Natural Gas

• The August Natural Gas contract is trading $0.015 higher at $3.703. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $3.469 and $3.029, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 72.92%.