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Outlook: Crude and products traded steady to slightly lower overnight but have since pulled higher. The energy complex has seen three consecutive days of losses prior to this morning, with RBOB seeing the sharpest decline of over 10 cents. Weakness continues to stem from Delta variant concerns and the resulting weak Asian demand. Equities are also seen trending lower this morning as retail sales saw a worse than expected drop in July due to rising consumers’ covid fears. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, five states including Florida and Mississippi all broke new daily case count records over the weekend. Currently, on a per capita basis, Louisiana, Florida, and Mississippi are being hit worst by the new outbreaks. Due to the rise in Delta cases, U.S. health experts are expected to announce a recommendation of a vaccine booster 8 months after the second dose.

Crude

• JPMorgan was seen lowering its year-end oil price forecast from $83 a barrel to $78 due to tightening covid restrictions in China.
• Libya’s energy minister stated that the nation’s oil production will struggle to maintain current levels if the country is not able to pass its first nationwide budget in about seven years.  
• Several Republican senators are calling for President Biden to reverse his request for increased OPEC production, stating that there is sufficient domestic supply.
• The September crude oil contract is trading $0.18 lower at $67.11. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $70.05 and $66.98 respectively. The 14-day RSI is 40.37%.
• As of 8:35 am CST: September Brent is down $0.25 at $69.26, the U.S. dollar index is 0.310 higher at 92.938 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 27.5 points at 4446.5.

Diesel

• India’s diesel sales for August 1 through 15 were seen down by 8% compared to the same period in 2019. This marks an improvement from July where demand was down by about 11%.
• The September ULSD contract is trading $0.0032 higher at $2.0515. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.1117 and $2.0357, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 42.19%.

Gasoline

• A survey by Descartes Labs that tracks movements of cellular devices reported the U.S. gasoline demand was likely seen falling for the third-straight week in the week ended August 13. Typically, there is a strong correlation between cell phone moment and EIA data for gasoline supplied.
• India’s fuel sales continue to strengthen despite Delta variant movement restrictions elsewhere in Asia. Gasoline sales for August 1 through 15 rose by 3.7% compares to the same period in 2019.
• The September RBOB contract is trading $0.0097 higher at $2.2106. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.1229 and $1.9968, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 45.37%.

Propane

• At last look, Conway propane was trading down $0.00250 at $1.17250 Mt. Belvieu was trading unchanged at $1.15000. 

Natural Gas

• Futures are seen falling this morning due to an updated weather forecast that is showing mixed outlooks for the U.S. Hotter than usual temperatures are expected for the U.S. East and South, while Northwest areas are forecast to see milder temperatures.
• The September Natural Gas contract is trading $0.078 lower at $3.868. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $4.008 and $3.307, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 49.52%.