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Outlook:  Crude and products both currently sit in positive territory this morning, with oil markets making up their earlier losses and pulling higher after the open. Traders focus most of their attention on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting that is scheduled to begin this coming Monday. Previously the group was expected to keep production plans unchanged, but with the ongoing energy crisis across the globe many are looking towards the group to help ease tightness. Several people familiar with the matter have reported that they expect the group to add additional barrels beyond the current 400,000 bpd plan. No details however have been given regarding how many extra barrels could be added. Supply tightness will continue to push markets higher, but markets will likely take next week to reassess the current situation depending on OPEC’s decision.

Crude

• Bank of America has stated that they foresee the current global energy crisis fueling oil prices above $100 this winter for the first time since 2014.
• Russia is forecast to have 3,464 million tonnes of primary oil refining capacity offline in October, an increase of 9.1% from last week’s estimate.
• Data released yesterday by the EIA showed that U.S. crude oil production rose by 31,000 bpd in July to 11.307 million bpd.
• Phillips 66 stated yesterday that it plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30% from operations and 15% from energy products by 2030.
• The Chinese government has ordered state-owned coal miners to product coal at full capacity even if it exceeds their annual quota limits.
• The October crude oil contract is trading $0.09 higher at $75.12. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $71.81 and $68.75 respectively. The 14-day RSI is 65.39%.
• As of 8:55 am CST: October Brent is up $0.28 at $78.59 and the U.S. dollar index is 0.193 lower at 94.037 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 4.00 points at 4293.75.

Diesel

• Asian refining margins for distillates-gasoil surged to their strongest level since January 2020 on Friday, boosted by continuing tight supplies.
• The October ULSD contract is trading $0.0137 higher at $2.3522. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.2104 and $2.1199, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 72.27%.

Gasoline

• The large backwardation between the October and November RBOB contracts has helped push prices higher today for the market as the new front month contract looks to catch up to the previous October contract.
• After the past week of panic buying in the U.K., many British gas stations remain empty today as a shortage of truck drivers continues to strain supply chains.
• The October RBOB contract is trading $0.0288 higher at $2.2228. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.1167 and $2.0425, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 65.51%.

Propane

• Propane prices continue to rally higher on tight supplies, with markets hitting their highest level since 2014 on Thursday.
• At last look, Conway propane was trading up $0.02500 at $1.46500. Mt. Belvieu was also trading up $0.01250 at $1.47000.