Outlook: Another day higher for the energies with crude pushing above $78 a barrel, the highest level seen since November 2014. Support continues to stem from the OPEC+ decision to stick with the current planned production increases. The group will add just 400,000 bpd of production through April 2022, citing slower Q4 demand. Analysts however view this decision as another catalyst to the already tight markets, expecting that demand will outstrip supply for the next few months. Citigroup has stated that they believe the group may meet before the next scheduled meeting as the energy crisis continues. The group reasoned that most analysts have a higher expectation for demand in coming months compared to OPEC, leading to the group possibly reconsidering its stance.
- The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose by 1.1% yesterday, topping a 2011 record as supply constraints continue to fuel commodities higher.
- Conning Asia Pacific's chief investment officer stated that they see commodity prices rising if the timeline for moving to green energy is shortened, citing underinvestment and supply constraints.
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that she sees the U.S. entering a recession if the government does not raise the debt ceiling within two weeks.
- Canada has invoked the 1977 pipeline treaty in hopes that issues with Line 5 can be escalated up to a nation-to-nation level, triggering bilateral negotiations.
- The October crude oil contract is trading $1.12 higher at $78.74. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $72.81 and $69.05 respectively. The 14-day RSI is 74.36%.
- As of 8:45 am CST: October Brent is up $1.27 at $82.53 and the U.S. dollar index is 0.256 higher at 94.032 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 14.75 points at 4306.
- Combined jet fuel and diesel shipments from Asia to Europe were seen surging to a 17-month high during September, up 16% from the previous month.
- The benchmark ULSD contract has managed to break through the resistance at $2.45 during overnight trade and now sits a couple cents above the October of 2018 high.
- The November ULSD contract is trading $0.0430 higher at $2.4796. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.2441 and $2.1286, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 80.15%.
- As RBOB markets work to regain lost ground against ULSD and crude markets, gasoline cracks were seen surging higher yesterday and now look to test $20.
- The November RBOB contract is trading $0.0345 higher at $2.3430. The 20-day and 100-day moving averages are $2.1432 and $2.0509, respectively. The 14-day RSI is 74.49%.
- Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that corn harvest is now 29% complete, above the 5-year average of 22%. Corn is also now rated at 88% mature compared to an average of 77%.
- At last look, Conway propane was trading unchanged $0.05250 at $1.52750. Mt. Belvieu was trading unchanged at $1.52500.
|As of 8:45 AM CST||WTI November||ULSD November||RBOB November||Nat Gas November|