Morning Highlights
Morning Highlights

11-17-21 WTI under 80 in front of EIA stats...

Tony Headrick

Nov 17, 2021

Outlook: There has been a relentless test of $80 in nearby WTI in recent days and today is no different.  Early trade is lower across the energy complex and we will get further definition on supply and demand when the EIA reports this morning at 9:30 am CST.


  • Yesterday afternoon the API predicted US crude stocks rose 655,000 barrels last week while Cushing, OK stocks fell 491,000 barrels. A Reuters poll suggests today the EIA may report a weekly crude build of 1.4 million barrels. Earlier this week a private group predicted Cushing, OK stocks fell 719,000 barrels last week.
  • In a conversation between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi, it is said that the U.S. asked China to release some of its SPR barrels.
  • Canada’s WCS crude trades at a discount of $18.00 to WTI, down from around a $12.00 discount in September but up from a $21.50 discount in early November.
  • North Dakota produced 1.112 million bpd of oil in September, up from 1.107 in August. Natural gas output fell to 90.5 bcf/d from 91.8 bcf/d.
  • OPEC Secretary General Barkindo said OPEC+ “will keep our hands firmly on the steering wheel.”
  • As of 10:28 am CST: Brent crude oil up $0.20 at $82.26, US dollar index up 0.323 to 95.730 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 23.00 points to 4,702.00.


  • Yesterday afternoon the API predicted US distillate stocks rose 107,000 barrels last week. A Reuters poll suggests today the EIA could report a 1.23 million barrel draw. The reported build from API acts to pressure ULSD prior to EIA stats this morning.


  • Yesterday afternoon the API predicted US gasoline stocks fell 2.8 million barrels last week. A Reuters poll suggests we could see a 575,000 barrel draw reported when the EIA releases its figures.


  • An OPIS poll suggests today we could see the EIA report propane stocks fell 862,000 barrels last week. Responses from a group of 10 participants varied widely from a 2 million barrel draw to a 400,000 barrel build. IHS Markit predicts a draw of 217,000 barrels.

Natural Gas

  • Natural gas is faltering with current trade down near 23 cents on the day in the nearby contract, shielding its eyes from another 6% spike in Dutch TTF natural gas price. U.S. natural gas supply and demand dynamics view international dynamics but are constrained in reaction due to a limit in LNG export capacity, which is expected to remain maxed out in the coming months.